Sarah Mitchell
Catholics in the United States are divided in their political affiliations, with some supporting the Democrats and others the Republicans. This partisan divide has presented a challenge for Catholic preachers, who have traditionally avoided endorsing political candidates or parties. From 1928 to 1968, Catholics predominantly voted for the Democratic candidate in presidential elections, but since then, they have tended to split their votes, with a notable shift towards the Republican Party. In 2018 and 2019, polls showed that 48% of Catholic registered voters identified with or leaned towards the Republican Party, while 47% favoured the Democratic Party. The Catholic vote is influenced by various factors, including racial and ethnic differences, with White Catholics more likely to support Republicans and Hispanic Catholics predominantly voting for Democrats.
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What You'll Learn
- Catholics voted Democrat in presidential elections from 1928 to 1968
- Since the 1970s, non-Hispanic white Catholics have voted mostly Republican
- Most Hispanic Catholic voters identify as Democrats
- Catholics who leave the Church due to abuse scandals tend to shift left politically
- Catholics are split between Republican and Democrat, with some being swing voters
Catholics voted Democrat in presidential elections from 1928 to 1968
From the onset of significant immigration in the 1840s, the Catholic Church in the United States was predominantly urban, with its leaders and congregants usually of the laboring classes. Over time, nativism, anti-Catholicism, and anti-unionism became associated with the Republican Party, and Catholics gravitated toward the Democratic Party.
In 1928, Al Smith became the first Roman Catholic to gain a major party's nomination for president, but his religion became an issue during the campaign, and he lost. Many feared that he would answer to the pope and not the constitution. Despite this, before the 1960s, Catholics were staunch Democrats.
In the 1960 election, John F. Kennedy became the first Catholic president, with a groundbreaking win. However, the Catholic vote started to become bipartisan in the 1960s, with a number of Catholics abandoning their traditional affiliation with the Democratic Party and supporting Republican candidates. This shift is evidenced by Nixon receiving 33% of the Catholic vote in the 1968 election, increasing to 52% in 1972.
Since the 1970s, non-Hispanic white Catholics have voted for the Republican Party very reliably, while a majority of Hispanic or Latino Catholics have voted Democrat. In 1980, Ronald Reagan won about half of the Catholic vote, with 25% of the Democrats who voted for him being non-Hispanic white, blue-collar Catholics.
In 2008, Catholics chose Democrat Barack Obama over Republican John McCain by a margin of 54% to 45%. In 2016, 52% of Catholics backed Republican Donald Trump, while 44% voted for Democrat Hillary Clinton. In 2020, Joe Biden became the second Catholic president of the United States.
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Since the 1970s, non-Hispanic white Catholics have voted mostly Republican
The voting behaviour of Catholics in the United States has changed over time. From the onset of significant immigration in the 1840s, the Catholic Church in the United States was predominantly urban, with both its leaders and congregants usually of the labouring classes. During this time, nativism, anti-Catholicism, and anti-unionism became associated with the Republican Party, and Catholics gravitated towards unions and the Democratic Party. This affiliation with the Democratic Party continued until the 1960s when cultural changes led to an incremental liberalization of the party.
Since the 1960s, the Catholic vote has become bipartisan. In the 1968 election, Nixon received 33% of the Catholic vote, but in 1972, this increased to 52%. This shift is particularly evident among non-Hispanic white Catholics, who have voted mostly Republican since the 1970s. In 1980, Ronald Reagan won about half of the Catholic vote and a majority of non-Hispanic white Catholics. These so-called \"Reagan Democrats\" formed an important part of his support base in both 1980 and 1984.
The shift towards the Republican Party among non-Hispanic white Catholics may be due to a change in political orientation. Wagner's theory suggests that the old "social justice" orientation of Catholics is being replaced by an emphasis on "social renewal". "Social renewal" partisans are "Mass-attending Catholics" who view the country as morally declining and are suspicious of popular culture and the federal government's influence on moral character. This shift is also reflected in the voting behaviour of former Catholics, who tend to experience a leftward shift in their political orientation, becoming more likely to support progressive candidates and causes.
While non-Hispanic white Catholics have generally voted Republican since the 1970s, the Catholic vote in the United States remains divided. In the 2008 election, Catholics chose Democrat Barack Obama over Republican John McCain by a margin of 54% to 45%. In 2012 and 2000, Catholic votes were almost evenly split between the two parties. According to Pew Research Center polls in 2018 and 2019, about half of Catholic registered voters (48%) described themselves as Republicans or leaned towards the Republican Party, while roughly the same share (47%) identified with or leaned towards the Democratic Party.
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Most Hispanic Catholic voters identify as Democrats
Since the 1970s, non-Hispanic white Catholics have voted mostly Republican, while a majority of Hispanic or Latino Catholics have voted Democrat. This is a notable divide, and it has been consistent over the past decade. In 2018 and 2019, two-thirds of Catholic registered voters were White, while a quarter were Hispanic.
Hispanic Catholics are the fastest-growing Catholic group in the United States. This demographic shift has been accompanied by a shift in political leanings, with a slight increase in affiliation with the Republican Party over the past decade. However, this shift has been accompanied by a corresponding increase in affiliation with the Democrats, offset by a decline in those identifying as independent.
Hispanic Catholics are less likely to identify as conservative today than they were a decade ago. This is reflected in their voting behavior, with a majority of Hispanic Catholics voting for Kamala Harris in 2024. In the previous election, 66% of Hispanic Catholics supported Joe Biden, the Democratic candidate. This is a notable double-digit shift in just four years.
Despite the shift towards the GOP, Hispanic Catholics still largely favor the Democratic Party. This is reflected in their views on specific policy issues, such as abortion and immigration, where they are often more aligned with the Democratic Party's platform. For example, 77% of Democratic and Democratic-leaning Catholic adults say they think abortion should be legal in all or most cases, while only 63% of Republican and Republican-leaning Catholics agree. On immigration, 91% of Catholic Democrats oppose expanding the wall along the US-Mexico border, while 81% of Catholic Republicans favor it.
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Catholics who leave the Church due to abuse scandals tend to shift left politically
The Catholic Church has been embroiled in numerous sexual abuse scandals involving its clergy. These scandals have led to a decline in membership, with around 10% of American adults leaving the Catholic Church despite being raised in it. While there are various reasons for this departure, about a quarter of former Catholics cite the sexual abuse scandals as a factor.
The political leanings of Catholics who remain in the Church are varied. While they traditionally voted for the Democratic Party, since the 1960s, the Catholic vote has become bipartisan. In recent years, Catholic support for Republican and Democratic candidates has been fairly evenly split, with around half of Catholic voters identifying with or leaning towards each party.
However, it is worth noting that there are differences within the Catholic population. Non-Hispanic white Catholics have been reliably voting for Republican candidates since the 1970s, while a majority of Hispanic or Latino Catholics have voted for Democrats. This divide may be attributed to differing cultural and social values among these groups, as well as their varying stances on issues such as immigration and abortion.
Despite the Catholic Church's formal opposition to abortion, 77% of Democratic and Democratic-leaning Catholic adults believe that abortion should be legal in most or all cases, while 63% of their Republican counterparts hold the opposite view. Similarly, on the issue of immigration, 91% of Catholic Democrats oppose expanding the wall along the US-Mexico border, while 81% of Catholic Republicans favor its expansion.
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Catholics are split between Republican and Democrat, with some being swing voters
Catholics in the United States are split between the Republican and Democratic parties, with some being swing voters. This is a relatively recent phenomenon, as Catholics voted solidly Democratic from 1928 to 1968, with the exception of the 1956 election. Since the 1970s, however, there has been a shift, with non-Hispanic white Catholics voting majority Republican, while a majority of Hispanic or Latino Catholics have voted Democrat.
In the 2008 election, Catholics chose Democrat Barack Obama over Republican John McCain by a margin of 54% to 45%. In 2012 and 2000, Catholic votes were almost evenly split. This partisan divide among Catholics is a challenge for Catholic preachers, who must navigate political differences within their congregations. As a result, Catholic bishops and priests have traditionally avoided endorsing political candidates or parties in their sermons.
Several factors influence the political leanings of Catholics in the United States. One factor is race and ethnicity. White Catholic registered voters tend to identify with or lean toward the Republican Party, while most Hispanic Catholic voters identify as Democrats or lean Democratic. Another factor is church attendance, with higher GOP association among Catholic voters who attend religious services more frequently.
The issue of abortion also divides Catholic voters, with 77% of Democratic and Democratic-leaning Catholic adults believing that abortion should be legal in all or most cases, while 63% of Republican and Republican-leaning Catholics say abortion should be illegal in all or most cases. Similarly, on the issue of immigration, there is a divide, with 91% of Catholic Democrats opposing a border wall between the U.S. and Mexico, while 81% of Catholic Republicans favor it.
In summary, Catholics in the United States are no longer a monolithic voting bloc, and their votes are split between the Republican and Democratic parties, with some Catholics playing a crucial role as swing voters in determining election outcomes.
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Frequently asked questions
According to a 2019 survey, 48% of Catholic registered voters describe themselves as Republican or lean towards the Republican Party, while 47% identify with or lean towards the Democratic Party.
From 1928 to 1968, Catholics voted mostly for Democratic candidates in presidential elections. Since the 1960s, the Catholic vote has become bipartisan. In the 1970s, Catholics began to split their ballots, especially in presidential elections, with many voting for Richard Nixon in 1972.
Among Catholic voters who attend services monthly or more, 61% identify as Republicans or lean Republican. Among less frequent attenders, 47% align with the GOP.
White Catholic registered voters tend to identify with or lean towards the Republican Party, while most Hispanic Catholic voters identify as Democrats or lean Democratic.
In a 2019 survey, 77% of Democratic and Democratic-leaning Catholic adults said they think abortion should be legal in all or most cases, while 63% of Republican and Republican-leaning Catholics said abortion should be illegal in all or most cases.
