Grace Thompson
As of 2022, around 31.6% of the global population identified as Christian, with half of those identifying as Catholic. This means that around 15.8% of the world's population is Catholic. In 2022, 25.8% of the global population identified as Muslim. While the number of Christians in the world is currently higher than the number of Muslims, the Muslim population is growing faster. This is due to a higher fertility rate among Muslims, which in 2015-2020 was 2.9, compared to the world average of 2.4. The growth of Islam will be most noticeable in sub-Saharan Africa, which is the fastest-growing region of the world.
| Characteristics | Values |
|---|---|
| Number of Catholics | 1.2 billion (half of the 2.4 billion Christians on Earth) |
| Number of Muslims | Nearly 2 billion (25.8% of the global population) |
| Catholic Population Growth | Declining in some Latin American countries |
| Muslim Population Growth | Expected to be most noticeable in sub-Saharan Africa |
| Catholic Countries with Smallest Average Family Size | Italy and Spain (1.3 and 1.2 children per woman, respectively) |
| Muslim Fertility Rate | Highest in the world (2.9 in 2015-2020) |
| Median Age of Muslims | 23 in 2015-2020 |
| Number of Muslim-Majority Countries | 49 |
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What You'll Learn
- Christians make up around 31.6% of the global population, with half identifying as Catholic
- Muslims make up 25.8% of the global population, with the majority Sunni or Shia
- Catholics are declining in Latin America, while Protestants are rising
- Muslims have the highest fertility rate at 2.9, with a median age of 23
- Christians have a higher fertility rate than the world average at 2.6
Christians make up around 31.6% of the global population, with half identifying as Catholic
Christianity is the world's largest religion, with around 2.4 billion adherents, constituting around 31.6% of the global population. Christians are heavily concentrated in the Americas, Europe, Oceania, and sub-Saharan Africa, with nearly 90% of all Christians found in the world's 157 Christian-majority countries. The United States is home to the largest Christian population (11.3% of the world total), followed by Brazil (8%), and Mexico (5%).
Christianity is also the world's fastest-growing religion, with a fertility rate higher than the world average (2.6 in 2015-2020, compared to 2.4 for the world average). In recent years, 33% of the world's births were to Christian parents, slightly greater than the Christian share of the world's population in 2015 (31%). By 2050, it is projected that Pentecostals could account for roughly one-third of the world's 3.3 billion Christians.
Among Christians, Catholics make up the largest subgroup, with around half of all Christians identifying as Catholic. However, data on religious subgroups, such as Catholics and Protestants, can be limited as censuses and surveys in many countries do not provide information on these smaller categories. In some Latin American countries, the percentage of Catholics has been declining, while the percentage of Protestants has been rising.
Christianity's growth is particularly noticeable in sub-Saharan Africa, which is the fastest-growing region in the world for Christianity. By 2050, four out of every ten Christians in the world will live in sub-Saharan Africa, where the fertility rate among Christians is the highest (4.4).
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Muslims make up 25.8% of the global population, with the majority Sunni or Shia
Islam is a diverse religion, with followers from a wide range of ethnic backgrounds and speaking hundreds of languages. Muslims make up a significant portion of the global population, estimated to be around 25.8% of the world's population, or 1.57 billion people. The majority of Muslims belong to one of two main sects: Sunni or Shia. While the exact numbers are difficult to pinpoint due to limitations in data collection, it is estimated that Sunnis make up the majority of Muslims, with estimates ranging from 85% to 90%. Shia Muslims, on the other hand, make up a smaller proportion, with estimates ranging from 10% to 15% of the global Muslim population, translating to between 154 million and 200 million people.
Geographically, the Muslim population is spread across all five inhabited continents, with a significant presence in Asia, the Middle East, and North Africa. More than 60% of Muslims reside in Asia, while about 20% can be found in the Middle East and North Africa. The Middle East-North Africa region stands out for having the highest percentage of Muslim-majority countries, with more than half of the countries in that region having populations that are approximately 95% Muslim or higher.
When it comes to specific countries, Indonesia, India, Pakistan, and Bangladesh have some of the largest Muslim populations. Pakistan is expected to surpass Indonesia as the country with the single largest Muslim population. Egypt, Jordan, and Saudi Arabia are also notable for their high proportion of Sunni Muslims, with Sunnis constituting 90% or more of their populations. Shia Muslims, on the other hand, are concentrated in Iran, which has the largest Shia majority, as well as in Iraq, Bahrain, and Azerbaijan.
The growth of the Muslim population is particularly notable in certain regions. For instance, the growth of Islam is most pronounced in sub-Saharan Africa, which is the fastest-growing region in the world for Islam. As a result, it is projected that more Muslims will reside in Nigeria than in Egypt later this century. Additionally, the annual growth rates for both Sunni and Shia populations are expected to vary, with the Shia population growth rate projected to be slightly lower than that of Sunnis over the next 20 years.
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Catholics are declining in Latin America, while Protestants are rising
Christianity is the world's largest religion, with 2.4 billion adherents, and Islam is the second-largest, with nearly 2 billion followers. Among Christians, Catholics make up about half of the population, while Protestants comprise 37%. Muslims are the majority in 49 countries, spanning the Middle East, Northern Africa, and parts of South Asia. Indonesia, India, Pakistan, and Bangladesh have the largest Muslim populations in the world.
Catholicism, which has long been the dominant religion in Latin America, is experiencing a notable decline in the region. In contrast, Protestantism is on the rise, with a growing number of Latin Americans embracing evangelical and Pentecostal denominations. This shift in religious affiliation is particularly evident in countries such as Brazil, Guatemala, and Nicaragua, where the percentage of people identifying as evangelical has significantly increased over time.
Several factors contribute to the decline of Catholicism in Latin America. Firstly, the region has witnessed a decrease in Catholic sacraments, including baptisms, confirmations, and marriages. This trend suggests a potential future reduction in the number of Catholics in Latin America. Secondly, young people in the region now have access to a wider range of faiths to choose from, and they seek a more personal relationship with God and alternative styles of worship. As a result, Protestant denominations and other Christian faiths have strengthened their outreach efforts, attracting those who feel unfulfilled by Catholicism.
The migration from Catholicism to Protestantism in Latin America is also influenced by cultural realities and social changes. For instance, Latin American Catholics tend to hold more progressive views on moral issues such as abortion, same-sex marriage, divorce, and relationships outside of marriage. In contrast, evangelical and Pentecostal groups advocate for more conservative stances on these issues, appealing to those who desire a return to traditional values.
While Catholicism is declining in Latin America, it is important to note that it still maintains a significant presence in the region. Countries like Mexico and Paraguay have high proportions of Catholic adherents, and even among those who have left the Catholic Church, very few have converted to other religions. The Catholic Church's decline in Latin America is a complex phenomenon that involves various social, cultural, and religious factors, and it remains to be seen how this religious landscape will continue to evolve in the future.
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Muslims have the highest fertility rate at 2.9, with a median age of 23
Muslims constitute the second-largest religious group worldwide, with nearly 2 billion followers. Islam is the fastest-growing religion in Europe, and the growth of the Muslim population in this region is primarily driven by immigration. Between the mid-2010s and mid-2016, migration was the biggest factor contributing to the expansion of Muslim populations in Europe, with approximately 2.5 million Muslims migrating for reasons other than employment or education. Additionally, more than 1.3 million Muslims received or were expected to receive refugee status, allowing them to stay on the continent. In 2016, the median age of Muslims throughout Europe was 30.4, making them significantly younger than the median age of other Europeans, which was 43.
The growth rate of Muslims has historically been higher than that of Hindus, as evidenced by census data from independent India. During the 1991-2001 decade, the Muslim growth rate was 29.5%, compared to 19.9% for Hindus. However, the Muslim population growth rate declined to 24.6% during the 2001-2011 decade, in line with similar declines across most religious groups in India. Despite the overall growth, the global Muslim population is aging due to declining fertility rates and rising life expectancy. The median age in Muslim-majority countries has increased from 19 to 24 in the past two decades and is projected to reach 30 by 2030.
The distribution of fertility rates varies significantly among Muslim-majority countries. For example, the total fertility rate in the Muslim-dominated countries of Maghreb ranges between 2 and 3, while it ranges between 6 and 7 in the Muslim-majority countries of Middle/West Africa. This divergence in fertility rates is attributed to factors other than religion, with evidence suggesting that age at first marriage, contraceptive use, and women's education play a significant role.
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Christians have a higher fertility rate than the world average at 2.6
Christianity, a faith that began in the Middle East nearly 2,000 years ago, is currently the world's largest religion, with around 2.4 billion followers. Christians have a higher fertility rate than the world average, at 2.6 in 2015-2020, compared to the world average of 2.4. The Christian fertility rate is also higher than that of Hindus (2.3) and Buddhists (1.6). However, Muslims have an even higher fertility rate, with an average of 3.1 children per woman, contributing to the faster growth of the Muslim population compared to Christians.
The Christian fertility rate varies across different denominations and regions. For instance, liberal Protestant denominations have lower fertility rates of around 1.5 to 1.6 children per woman, while conservative Protestants have higher rates of approximately 1.8 children per woman. Nondenominational churches are experiencing robust growth, with liberal nondenominational movements achieving the fertility rate needed for stability (1.8 to 1.9). Meanwhile, Catholic and Orthodox churches are in decline, with an average of 1.9 children per woman, below the replacement level of 2.1.
Pentecostal churches, a movement emphasizing personal experiences with God, are also growing, with a fertility rate of 2.1. By 2050, Pentecostals could make up about one-third of the projected 3.3 billion Christians worldwide. The growth of Christianity is particularly notable in sub-Saharan Africa, where the fertility rate among Christians is the highest at 4.4. By 2050, this region is expected to be home to 40% of the world's Christian population.
The higher fertility rates among Christians compared to the world average contribute to the growth of the Christian population. However, the growth of Christianity is also influenced by factors such as religious conversion, infant mortality rates, and migration patterns. Additionally, the youth population within a religious group can impact its growth, as younger adherents have more prime childbearing years ahead of them. While Christians have a lower youth population than Muslims, with 27% under the age of 15 compared to 34% for Muslims, the Christian population is still expected to increase.
In summary, Christians have a higher fertility rate than the world average, contributing to the growth of the Christian population. However, the growth of Christianity is influenced by various factors, and the future trajectory of its adherents will depend on the interplay between fertility rates, conversion rates, and demographic trends.
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Frequently asked questions
There are an estimated 1.2 billion Catholics in the world, making up half of the global Christian population.
There are nearly 2 billion Muslims worldwide, making up around 25.8% of the global population.
Two predominantly Catholic countries, Italy and Spain, have some of the world's smallest average family sizes, with 1.3 and 1.2 children per woman, respectively.
Indonesia, India, Pakistan, and Bangladesh have the largest Muslim populations, with Pakistan expected to surpass Indonesia as the country with the largest Muslim population.
The median age of Muslims worldwide is 23, with over a third (34%) in the youngest segment of the population (birth to age 14).
