Grace Thompson
Catholics make up about one-fifth of the US population, and their votes have swung back and forth between the Republican and Democratic candidates in recent presidential elections. In 2016, 52% of Catholic voters backed Donald Trump, and in 2020, Trump was again favoured by Catholic voters in several battleground states. However, Catholic voters are split down the middle politically, with 48% describing themselves as Republicans and 47% as Democrats according to polls in 2018 and 2019.
| Characteristics | Values |
|---|---|
| Percentage of Catholics in the US population | 20% |
| Political leanings | 48% Republican, 47% Democrat |
| 2016 election votes | 52% Republican, 44% Democrat |
| 2004 election votes | Majority Republican |
| 2008 election votes | 54% Democrat, 45% Republican |
| 2012 election votes | Even split |
| 2000 election votes | Even split |
| White Catholic political leanings | 57% Republican |
| Hispanic Catholic political leanings | 68% Democrat |
| Importance of a president who lives a moral and ethical life | 62% say it is very important |
| Importance of a president who shares their religious beliefs | 14% say it is very important |
| 2020 election votes | Majority Democrat |
| 2024 election votes | 52% Republican, 47% Democrat |
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What You'll Learn
Catholic voters' preferences in the 2020 election
Catholics make up about one-fifth of the US population, and their votes are often split between the two major parties. In the 2020 election, Joe Biden became only the fourth Catholic major-party nominee in US history. Biden made his faith a significant part of his presidential campaign, and this may have contributed to a marginal increase in support from Catholic voters compared to 2016.
In 2016, Donald Trump won 52% of Catholic votes, according to a Pew Research Center survey. However, in 2020, AP VoteCast found that 50% of Catholics backed Trump, while 49% favoured Biden. This reflects the Catholic vote's longstanding role as a closely contested vote in presidential elections.
There were countervailing forces at play among Catholic voters in 2020. Some may have been drawn to Biden because he is Catholic, while others may have been put off by his adoption of Church positions, which some considered insufficiently Catholic. The impact of these forces is difficult to determine, but Biden did win several Midwestern swing states with significant Catholic populations, such as Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, by very small margins.
Catholics, like members of many other religious groups, don't necessarily seek a president who shares their religious beliefs. Instead, about 62% say it is very important to them that the president lives a moral and ethical life. This view is shared by similar proportions of White and Hispanic Catholics.
While the GOP has historically enjoyed success with Catholic voters, there is some evidence that they are moving away from Trump. This shift could have contributed to Trump's loss in the 2020 election.
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Catholic voters' preferences in the 2016 election
Catholics make up about one-fifth of the US population, and their votes have swung back and forth between Republican and Democratic candidates in recent presidential elections. In 2016, Catholic voters slightly favored Republican Donald Trump over Democrat Hillary Clinton, with 52% voting for Trump and 44% for Clinton, according to a Pew Research Center survey. This marked the fourth straight election that Catholics had voted for the winning president.
However, Catholic voters are not a monolithic bloc, and their preferences vary depending on demographics and other factors. For instance, there is a significant divide between White and Hispanic Catholics. In 2016, 64% of White Catholics voted for Trump, while 67% of Hispanic Catholics voted for Clinton. White Catholic registered voters tend to identify with or lean toward the Republican Party, while most Hispanic Catholic voters identify as Democrats or lean Democratic.
Catholics also differ in their voting preferences based on gender. In 2016, there was a pronounced gender gap among White Catholic voters, with 58% of White Catholic men favoring Trump compared to only 38% of White Catholic women. Nearly half (49%) of White Catholic women supported Clinton.
While Catholics are influenced by their religious beliefs and values when voting, they do not necessarily seek a president who shares their faith. Instead, many Catholics prioritize a president who lives a moral and ethical life. Additionally, Catholics have been described as perennial swing voters in American politics, and their votes are often courted by both major parties.
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Catholic voters' preferences in the 2008 election
Catholics make up about one-fifth of the US population and, like Americans overall, they are divided in their political opinions. In the 2008 election, Catholic voters supported Barack Obama over John McCain by a margin of 54% to 45%.
In the 2008 Democratic primary campaign, Catholics were key members of Hillary Clinton's base. In the Pennsylvania exit poll, 70% of white Protestant Democratic primary participants said they would stick with Obama in the general election contest against McCain, versus 79% who said they would stick with Clinton. Only 59% of white Catholics said they would stick with McCain, versus 85% for Clinton. That 26-point gap would be enough to make a difference in closely contested states with large Catholic populations, which include Florida, Iowa, Minnesota, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
Education is a modest factor: relative to Protestants, Clinton did better by 14 points among Catholic college graduates and by 8 points among those with less than a BA. Income and gender matter even less: Clinton’s total was 9 points better among Catholics making less than $50,000 than among Protestants and 12 points better among those making more, 12 points better among Catholic men and 13 points among women. Age matters a great deal: Clinton did 15 points better among Catholics older than 45 than among Protestants but only 3 points better among younger Catholics.
Catholics, like members of many other religious groups, don’t necessarily seek a president who shares their religious beliefs, but they want a president who lives a moral and ethical life. About 62% of Catholics say it is very important to them to have a president who personally lives a moral and ethical life, while just 14% say it is very important to them to have a president who shares their religious beliefs.
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Catholic voters' views on abortion
Catholics make up about one-fifth of the US population and hold diverse political opinions. Catholic voters have swung between Republican and Democratic candidates in recent presidential elections. In 2016, 52% of Catholics backed Republican Donald Trump, while 54% approved of his presidency in 2020. However, 69% of Hispanic Catholics disapproved of Trump, with 65% voting for Biden in 2020.
Catholics, like other religious groups, seek a morally upright president, with 62% prioritizing this over shared religious beliefs. While the Catholic Church staunchly opposes abortion, Catholic voters' views vary, with regular Mass attenders most opposed. Two-thirds of weekly Mass attendees believe abortion should be illegal, and half support exceptions for rape or threats to the mother's life. They also tend to believe life begins at conception. In contrast, 65% of non-weekly Mass attendees believe abortion should be legal, including 75% in cases of rape or danger to the mother.
Political affiliation influences Catholic views on abortion. Most Catholic Republicans say abortion should be illegal (60%) and believe life begins at conception (59%). Conversely, most Catholic Democrats support legal abortion (73%), and only 30% believe life starts at conception. Overall, majorities of Catholic Republicans and Democrats agree that abortion should be permitted in cases of rape or danger to the pregnant woman's life.
Catholic women are slightly more likely than men to support legal abortion (60% vs. 53%), and they strongly assert that the decision belongs to the pregnant woman. Younger Catholics, aged 18-25, also lean towards legal abortion. Abortion and reproductive rights ranked eighth among important issues for Catholic voters in a 2022 poll, with only 37% citing it as a key consideration. However, abortion remains a pivotal issue for some Catholic voters, influencing their shift from Democratic to Republican candidates since the 1980s.
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Catholic voters' preferences by race
Catholics make up about one-fifth of the US population, and their voting preferences are diverse. While the Catholic Church has taken clear stances on certain issues, Catholic voters in the US hold a wide range of political opinions.
In the 2016 US presidential election, 52% of Catholic voters supported Republican Donald Trump, while 44% voted for Democrat Hillary Clinton. In the 2020 election, Trump maintained his support among White Catholics, with 54% approval, and 59% saying they would vote for him if the election were held at the time of the survey. However, 69% of Hispanic Catholics disapproved of Trump's performance, and 65% said they would vote for Joe Biden.
The political leanings of White and Hispanic Catholics are quite different. Nearly six in ten White Catholic registered voters (57%) identify with or lean toward the Republican Party, while most Hispanic Catholic voters (68%) identify as Democrats or lean Democratic. This divide is also reflected in their views on abortion, with 63% of Republican and Republican-leaning Catholics saying abortion should be illegal in all or most cases, compared to 77% of Democratic and Democratic-leaning Catholics who support abortion legality.
While the impact of Catholic voters on the 2020 election outcome is difficult to determine, Biden's faith may have played a role in his victory. As only the fourth Catholic major-party nominee in US history, Biden made his faith a significant part of his campaign. Josh Dickson, the Biden campaign's faith engagement director, attributed their success in key Midwestern states with significant Catholic populations, such as Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, to their engagement with evangelical and Catholic voters.
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Frequently asked questions
Catholics make up roughly one-fifth of the US population.
Catholic voters in the US are split down the middle politically. Around half (48%) describe themselves as Republicans or lean towards the Republican Party, while roughly the same number (47%) identify with or lean towards the Democratic Party.
Catholics, like members of many other religious groups, don't necessarily seek a president who shares their religious beliefs. Only 14% say this is very important to them. However, about 6 in 10 Catholics say it is very important to them to have a president who lives a moral and ethical life.
In the 2016 US election, 52% of Catholics voted for Republican candidate Donald Trump, while 44% voted for Democrat Hillary Clinton.
In the 2020 US election, Catholic voters in several battleground states favored Donald Trump over Joe Biden's running mate, Kamala Harris, by 5 percentage points. However, Biden may have picked up marginal support among Catholic voters compared to 2016.
