Michael Brooks
Northern Ireland voted to remain in the EU by a margin of 56% to 44%. There was a strong division behind this outcome, with different ethno-national groups voting very differently in the referendum. 85% of Catholics voted Remain, compared to only 40% of Protestants. Voting was very strongly linked to the underlying divide in Northern Ireland between Catholic nationalists (who tend to identify as Irish and favour a united Ireland) and Protestant unionists (who tend to identify as British and favour maintaining Northern Ireland as part of the United Kingdom). The Brexit negotiations will have a significant impact on the border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland, and between Northern Ireland and Great Britain, which has implications for both communities.
| Characteristics | Values |
|---|---|
| Northern Ireland's vote to remain in the EU | 56% |
| Percentage of Catholics who voted to remain in the EU | 85% |
| Percentage of Protestants who voted to remain in the EU | 40% |
| Percentage of self-described 'nationalists' who voted to remain in the EU | 88% |
| Percentage of self-described 'unionists' who voted to remain in the EU | 34% |
| Percentage of 'Irish' respondents who voted to remain in the EU | 87% |
| Percentage of 'British' respondents who voted to remain in the EU | 37% |
| Percentage of Catholics in Northern Ireland as per 2021 census | 45.7% |
| Percentage of Protestants in Northern Ireland as per 2021 census | 43.48% |
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What You'll Learn
Catholics voted Remain by a large margin
The high level of support for remaining in the EU among Catholics is particularly notable given the historical divide in Northern Ireland between Catholic nationalists, who tend to identify as Irish and favour a united Ireland, and Protestant unionists, who tend to identify as British and favour maintaining Northern Ireland as part of the United Kingdom. In the Brexit referendum, 88% of nationalists voted Remain, compared to only 34% of unionists, and 87% of respondents who identified as Irish voted Remain, compared to 37% of those who identified as British.
The Catholic Church in Northern Ireland has a complex and often troubled history, with deep-rooted sectarian divisions between Catholics and Protestants. Despite the peace agreement, many individuals have faced sectarian experiences, and the Brexit referendum has further highlighted these divisions. The referendum outcome has also had significant implications for the border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland, with many Catholics concerned about the potential impact on their sense of connection with the rest of Ireland.
The demographic shift in Northern Ireland, with Catholics recently outnumbering Protestants for the first time, has added another layer of complexity to the political landscape. This shift has significant implications for the future of the region, and it remains to be seen how it will influence future voting patterns and the ongoing debate around the Irish border.
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Protestants voted Leave, but were more polarised
In the Brexit referendum, Northern Ireland voted to remain in the EU by a margin of 56% to 44%. However, this outcome masked a strong division between different ethno-national groups. While 85% of Catholics voted to remain, only 40% of Protestants did the same.
The referendum vote in Northern Ireland was strongly linked to the underlying divide between Catholic nationalists and Protestant unionists. Catholics in Northern Ireland tend to identify as Irish and favour a united Ireland, while Protestants tend to identify as British and favour maintaining Northern Ireland as part of the United Kingdom. This divide was reflected in the referendum, with 88% of nationalists and 87% of Irish respondents voting to remain, compared to 34% of unionists and 37% of British respondents.
The voting behaviour of Protestants was more polarised than that of Catholics. While Catholics were quite homogeneous in their pro-remain disposition, with little variation between working-class and less-educated Catholics and middle-class and more highly educated Catholics, Protestants showed more variation in their voting behaviour. The "left behind" thesis, which associates voting Leave with those left behind by globalisation (working-class, less skilled, and educated voters with socially conservative views), better explains the variation in Protestant voting behaviour. Higher-skilled and educated Protestants were more likely to vote Remain than their lower-skilled and less-educated counterparts.
The Brexit referendum outcome and the subsequent shift in demographic balance, with Catholics outnumbering Protestants in Northern Ireland for the first time, have significant implications for the region's future. The post-Brexit Irish Sea border has already impacted trade between Northern Ireland and Great Britain, and the rise of Sinn Féin, a party campaigning for a united Ireland, adds further complexity. These developments underscore the need to address the concerns of both communities and find solutions that respect the identities and connections of all Northern Irish citizens.
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$29
Catholics' Remain vote linked to a sense of Irish identity
Northern Ireland voted to remain in the EU by a margin of 56% to 44%. However, there was a strong division behind this outcome, with different ethno-national groups voting very differently in the referendum. Notably, 85% of Catholics voted to remain, compared to only 40% of Protestants.
The voting behaviour in the Brexit referendum was strongly linked to the underlying divide in Northern Ireland between Catholic nationalists (who tend to identify as Irish and favour a united Ireland) and Protestant unionists (who tend to identify as British and favour maintaining Northern Ireland as part of the United Kingdom). This is reflected in the voting data, with 88% of 'nationalists' and 87% of 'Irish' respondents voting to remain, compared to 34% of 'unionists' and 37% of 'British' respondents.
Catholics were quite uniform in their support for remaining in the EU, with little variation between how working-class, less well-educated Catholics voted compared to middle-class, better-educated Catholics. This suggests that the Remain vote among Catholics was linked to a sense of Irish identity and a desire for a united Ireland, rather than solely based on socioeconomic factors.
The demographic shift in Northern Ireland, with Catholics now outnumbering Protestants for the first time, has significant implications for the political landscape. This shift may impact the debate around Irish unity and the future of the border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland. The post-Brexit Irish Sea border has already created trade barriers between Northern Ireland and Great Britain, and there are concerns about maintaining peace and stability in the region.
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Brexit's impact on the Good Friday Agreement
In the 2016 Brexit referendum, 85% of Catholics in Northern Ireland voted to remain in the EU, compared to just 40% of Protestants. The voting behaviour was also influenced by ideological positions and national identity. 88% of 'nationalists' voted to remain, while only 34% of 'unionists' did. Similarly, 87% of 'Irish' respondents voted to remain, compared to 37% of 'British' respondents.
Brexit has had a significant impact on the Good Friday Agreement, which was signed in April 1998 and brought an end to decades of political violence and turmoil in Northern Ireland, known as the Troubles. The Agreement enabled a comprehensive approach to governance and security, taking constitutional debates off the table by declaring that Northern Ireland would remain part of the UK unless a majority of its people voted otherwise.
One of the key challenges Brexit poses to the Good Friday Agreement is the issue of the border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland. The question of where to place this border, and whether it should be 'hard' or 'soft', has become a highly contentious issue. A hard border between North and South could undermine the Catholic/nationalist sense of connection with the rest of Ireland, while a border along the Irish Sea could alienate working-class and less-educated Protestants/unionists who voted for Brexit but did not imagine Northern Ireland becoming distinct from the rest of the UK.
Agriculture is another complex sector impacted by Brexit, as it accounts for 35% of the region's exports, with a significant portion going to Ireland. A no-deal Brexit could result in significant economic risks, including job losses and a decline in exports to Ireland.
The Good Friday Agreement has also facilitated all-island healthcare services, such as the development of an all-island pediatric cardiology service in Dublin. Decisions about the Irish border post-Brexit could potentially impact the accessibility and sustainability of such cross-border healthcare services.
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Catholics' distrust of the British government and DUP
In the Brexit referendum, 85% of Catholics in Northern Ireland voted to remain in the EU, compared to 40% of Protestants. This was linked to the underlying divide between Catholic nationalists, who tend to identify as Irish and favour a united Ireland, and Protestant unionists, who tend to identify as British and favour Northern Ireland remaining part of the UK.
This divide is rooted in Northern Ireland's history of anti-Catholicism and sectarian violence. Ireland's Catholic majority was subjected to persecution from the time of the English Reformation under Henry VIII, and this intensified under Elizabeth I and James I, with land appropriation and the dispossession of Catholics in favour of Protestant settlers. Anti-Catholic sentiment was further fuelled by the Pope's excommunication of Elizabeth I in 1570, which released her subjects from their allegiance to her and linked Catholics in the minds of the government and the public as traitors. This perception of Catholics as subversive continued under James I due to the Gunpowder Plot and was also a factor in the deposition of James II, who had converted to Catholicism.
The DUP's founder, Ian Paisley, was notoriously anti-Catholic, referring to the Pope as "his Satanic Majesty". For decades after Northern Ireland's formation in 1922, Catholics faced intimidation, discrimination, and violence with little protection from public authorities. During the Troubles in the 1970s, the Glenanne gang, which included British soldiers and police officers, carried out attacks against Catholics and Irish nationalists. The Shankill Butchers, a Protestant gang, tortured and murdered an estimated 30 Catholics between 1972 and 1982 solely due to their religious affiliation.
This history has contributed to Catholics' distrust of the British government and the DUP, particularly as Protestant identity and loyalty to the British State have often been seen as interchangeable. While a small but growing number of Catholics have voted for the DUP due to their stance on moral issues, the party has faced protests for being perceived as "anti-woman, anti-gay, and anti-science".
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Frequently asked questions
85% of Catholics voted to remain in the EU, compared to 40% of Protestants.
The Brexit referendum results led to a shift in the political landscape of Northern Ireland, with the rise of Sinn Fein, a party that campaigned for Remain, and the decline of the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP), the largest unionist and pro-Brexit party. In the 2021 census, Catholics outnumbered Protestants in Northern Ireland for the first time, with 45.7% of inhabitants identifying as Catholic or from a Catholic background.
The Brexit referendum raised questions about the nature of the border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland. A hard border between the two regions was largely unpopular, with 85% of Catholics and 47% of nationalist supporters expressing reluctance to accept new border controls.
