Grace Thompson
Catholics make up about one-fifth of the US population, and their votes have become increasingly important in elections. Since the 1960s, Catholic voters have become bipartisan, with their votes split between the two major parties. While there is no single Catholic vote, Catholics are the ultimate swing vote, and politicians from both parties try to woo them. In recent years, the GOP has gained an advantage among Catholic voters, with about half identifying as Republicans or leaning Republican, compared to 44%-47% who identify as Democrats or lean Democratic. However, Catholic voters have swung back and forth between the two parties in recent presidential elections, and there are differences between various groups of Catholics, such as between White and Hispanic Catholics.
| Characteristics | Values |
|---|---|
| Catholic voters as a percentage of the national electorate | 25-27% |
| Catholic voters' political leanings | Bipartisan since the 1960s; about half identify as Republicans or lean Republican, while 44-47% identify as Democrats or lean Democratic |
| Catholic voters who attend services monthly or more | 61% identify as Republicans or lean Republican |
| Catholic voters who attend services less frequently | 47% identify as Republicans or lean Republican |
| White Catholic voters | 57% identify as Republicans or lean Republican |
| Hispanic/Latino Catholic voters | Majority voted Democrat in the past, but there is a shift towards the GOP in recent years |
| Cuban-American Catholic voters | Predominantly Republican |
| Puerto Rican Catholic voters | Predominantly Democratic |
| Mexican-American Catholic voters in Texas | More willing to vote Republican than Mexican Americans in California |
| African-American Catholic voters | Predominantly Democratic |
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What You'll Learn
Catholic voters' political diversity
Catholic voters in the United States have become increasingly diverse in their political affiliations. While historically, Catholics tended to vote for the Democratic Party, this began to shift in the 1960s and 1970s, with a significant number of Catholics moving towards the Republican Party. This shift was particularly evident among white, non-Hispanic Catholics, who have voted predominantly Republican since the 1970s.
In recent years, Catholic voters have become a key swing vote, with their support divided between the two major parties. According to polls, around half of Catholic registered voters describe themselves as Republicans or lean towards the Republican Party, while a similar proportion identifies with or leans towards the Democratic Party. This diversity of political opinions among Catholics extends to issues on which the Catholic Church has taken a clear stance, such as abortion, poverty, immigration, and war.
The political diversity among Catholic voters is influenced by various factors, including their racial and ethnic backgrounds. For example, Hispanic or Latino Catholics have traditionally voted for the Democratic Party, but there has been a recent shift towards the Republican Party, particularly in counties along the southern border. On the other hand, Cuban Americans are predominantly Republican, while Puerto Ricans tend to vote Democratic. White Catholics have also shown a shift towards the Republican Party, with a significant number defecting from the Democratic Party during election years.
The frequency of religious attendance also plays a role in political affiliation among Catholics. Catholic voters who attend religious services more frequently are more likely to identify as Republicans or lean towards the Republican Party. Additionally, Catholic voters prioritize having a president who leads a moral and ethical life, regardless of their religious beliefs. This view is shared by both White and Hispanic Catholics, indicating a common ground despite their political differences.
The influence of Catholic voters extends beyond their numbers, as they comprise about one-fifth of the US population and a quarter of the national electorate. This significant proportion makes Catholic voters a crucial demographic for politicians and scholars to understand and appeal to during elections. While there is no single "Catholic vote," the political diversity within this group reflects the broader polarization among the American public.
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Catholic voters' influence
Catholic voters in the United States have a significant influence on election outcomes, constituting about one-fifth to one-fourth of the national electorate. While Catholics have historically been aligned with the Democratic Party, voting patterns have shifted over time, with a growing number of Catholics identifying as Republicans or leaning towards the Republican Party in recent years. This shift is particularly pronounced among White Catholics, while Hispanic or Latino Catholics tend to remain largely Democratic.
Since the 1960s, the Catholic vote has become bipartisan, with Catholics representing one of the nation's largest swing groups. This shift away from the Democratic Party was evident in the 1968 and 1972 elections, where Nixon's share of the Catholic vote increased significantly. In the 1980s, Ronald Reagan won about half of the Catholic vote, with a significant number of "Reagan Democrats" contributing to his support.
In recent presidential elections, Catholic voters have swung between Republican and Democratic candidates. In 2008, Catholic voters chose Barack Obama over John McCain by a margin of 54% to 45%. However, in 2016, Catholics backed Donald Trump over Hillary Clinton, with 52% to 44% respectively. This shift towards the Republican Party among White Catholics has been a notable trend.
The Catholic Church hierarchy does not dictate voting choices, but it does exert substantial influence over the faithful in their dioceses. Bishops and clergy can direct significant resources and support towards issues and candidates that align with their values. Additionally, Catholic voters prioritize moral and ethical leadership in their presidential candidates, which can influence their voting decisions.
While Catholic voters do not constitute a unified bloc, their voting patterns have a significant impact on election outcomes. Their diverse range of political opinions and swing voting behavior make them a crucial demographic for both political parties to consider and actively court during elections.
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Catholic voters' historical affiliation with the Democratic Party
Catholics have been active in US elections since the mid-19th century. From then until 1964, Catholics were predominantly Democrats, with 80-90% voting for the party. In the 1960s and 1970s, a number of Catholics abandoned their traditional affiliation with the Democratic Party and began to support the Republican Party. This shift is evidenced by the fact that Nixon received 33% of the Catholic vote in the 1968 election compared to 52% in 1972.
In 1980, Ronald Reagan won about half of the Catholic vote and a majority of non-Hispanic white Catholics. Reagan Democrats, many of them non-Hispanic white, blue-collar Catholics, comprised 25% of the Democrats who voted for Reagan. Despite Catholic Geraldine Ferraro's presence on the Democratic ticket in 1984, Reagan won 54 to 61% of the Catholic vote. Although the majority of Catholics in 1984 remained Democrats, Catholic votes switched to Reagan at about the same level as most Protestant groups.
In 2000, Catholics voted for Republican George W. Bush over Democrat Al Gore. Catholics chose Democrat Barack Obama over Republican John McCain in 2008 by a margin of 54% to 45%, and divided their votes almost exactly in half in 2012 (when Obama defeated Republican Mitt Romney). In 2016, Catholics voted for Republican Donald Trump over Democrat Hillary Clinton, 52% to 44%.
In recent years, the GOP has gained a modest advantage among Catholics. About half of Catholic voters identify as Republicans or lean toward the Republican Party, compared with 44% who identify as Democrats or lean Democratic. White Catholic registered voters identify with or lean toward the Republican Party by a larger margin (57% to 43%). Most Hispanic Catholic voters (68%), meanwhile, identify as Democrats or lean Democratic.
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Catholic voters' swing between parties
Catholic voters in the United States have become increasingly influential in elections, making up about a quarter of the national electorate. They are also a swing vote, with Catholic voters divided in their political opinions and voting preferences. While Catholic voters once traditionally affiliated with the Democratic Party, since the 1960s and 1970s, there has been a shift towards the Republican Party, with the Catholic vote now split between the two parties.
In the 2016 election, 52% of Catholics backed Republican Donald Trump, while 44% voted for Democrat Hillary Clinton. In 2008, Catholics chose Democrat Barack Obama over Republican John McCain by a margin of 54% to 45%. In 2004, Catholics narrowly backed Republican George W. Bush over Democrat John Kerry, and in 2000, they divided their votes almost equally between Bush and Democrat Al Gore.
The voting preferences of Catholic Democrats and Catholic Republicans differ on issues such as immigration. For example, 91% of Catholic Democrats oppose expanding the wall between the US and Mexico, while 81% of Catholic Republicans favour it. Catholic voters are also influenced by the moral and ethical character of the candidates, with 62% saying it is very important to them.
The political leanings of Catholic voters also vary by ethnicity. Non-Hispanic white Catholics have voted majority Republican since the 1970s, while a majority of Hispanic or Latino Catholics have voted Democrat. However, there has been a recent shift among Hispanic Catholics towards the Republican Party, with Donald Trump making gains among this group in the 2020 and 2024 elections. Cuban Americans are predominantly Republican, while Puerto Ricans are predominantly Democratic. Mexican Americans in Texas are more likely to vote Republican than Mexican Americans in California.
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Catholic voters' views on immigration
Catholic voters in the US have a range of views on immigration, and these views are influenced by their faith. While Catholic voters have historically been associated with the Democratic Party, in recent years, there has been a shift towards the Republican Party, particularly among non-Hispanic White Catholics. This shift is evident in the 2016 presidential election, where 52% of Catholics backed Republican Donald Trump.
A survey by the Center for Applied Research in the Apostolate (CARA) found that US Catholics are divided on several aspects of immigration policy. While some Catholic voters prioritize border security and view immigration as a crisis, others emphasize assistance to migrants and support legalization options for those already in the country. According to the CARA survey, 43% of US Catholics believe that immigration levels should be decreased, 23% think they should be increased, and 34% want them to remain unchanged. Additionally, 57% of US Catholics agree that immigration has a mix of positive and negative effects.
The impact of immigration on specific aspects of American life is also a point of contention among Catholic voters. While 56% believe immigration negatively affects crime rates, 50% think it worsens taxes, and 48% see it as detrimental to the economy. However, 39% acknowledge that immigration improves food, music, and the arts in the US. Notably, Catholic Republicans, especially those aged 55 and older, tend to view immigration more negatively, whereas Catholic Democrats, particularly younger voters, are more likely to see immigration positively or as having minimal impact.
The views of Catholic leaders and authorities on immigration also vary. Cardinal McElroy, for example, has spoken out against mass deportations and in favor of migrant inclusion. In contrast, JD Vance has been associated with an anti-immigrant agenda. The Catholic Church's teachings on immigration may influence the opinions of Catholic voters, but the extent of this influence differs among individuals. According to the CARA survey, only 19% of respondents said their Catholic faith informs their opinions on immigration "very much", while 35% said it does "somewhat."
In summary, Catholic voters in the US hold diverse views on immigration, reflecting the broader political polarization in the country. While some Catholic voters lean towards the Republican Party's stance on immigration, emphasizing border security and viewing immigration as a crisis, others align with the Democratic Party's approach, prioritizing assistance to migrants and recognizing the positive contributions of immigration. The Catholic Church's teachings and values shape the perspectives of Catholic voters, but individual interpretations and political affiliations also play a significant role in shaping their opinions on immigration.
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Frequently asked questions
Catholics are the ultimate swing voters, and their votes have been known to determine the winners in close elections. In recent presidential elections, Catholic voters have swung back and forth between the Republican and Democratic candidates.
Around half of Catholic registered voters describe themselves as Republicans or lean towards the Republican Party. This is especially true for non-Hispanic white Catholics, who have voted majority Republican since the 1970s.
A significant number of Catholics identify with or lean towards the Democratic Party, with some sources stating that roughly half of Catholic voters do so. This is particularly true for Hispanic or Latino Catholics, who have largely voted Democrat.
Catholics, like members of other religious groups, don't necessarily seek a president who shares their religious beliefs. Instead, they want a president who lives a moral and ethical life.
Since the 1960s, the Catholic vote has become bipartisan. In the 1960s and early 1970s, many Catholics abandoned their traditional affiliation with the Democratic Party and began to support the Republican Party. This shift can be attributed to the emergence of a new kind of Democrat: wealthy, secular, and ideological.
