Ethan Walker
Catholics are the largest religious denomination in the United States, and they have historically been an important voting bloc in American politics. While there is no single Catholic vote that predictably aligns with one party, it is worth examining the political leanings of Catholics, as they can be swing voters and tend to vote for the winner. In recent years, there has been a shift in Catholic voting patterns, with a growing number of Catholics identifying as Republicans, while others remain loyal to the Democrats. This partisan divide within the Catholic Church presents both challenges and opportunities for political dialogue and civic conversation.
| Characteristics | Values |
|---|---|
| Percentage of Catholic voters who identify with or lean toward the Democratic Party | 44% |
| Percentage of Catholic voters who identify with or lean toward the Republican Party | 52% |
| Percentage of Catholic voters who identify with the Democratic Party | 42% |
| Percentage of Catholic voters who identify with the Republican Party | 38% |
| Percentage of Catholic voters who identify as Independents | 20% |
| Percentage of Catholic voters who approve of Biden | 45% |
| Percentage of Catholic voters who approve of Trump | 49% |
| Percentage of Catholics who think the nation is headed in the right direction | 24% |
| Percentage of Catholics who think the nation is off on the wrong track | 59% |
| Percentage of Catholics who are unsure about the direction of the nation | 17% |
| Percentage of white Catholics who identify as Republicans | Majority |
| Percentage of Hispanic Catholics who are Democrats | Majority |
| Percentage of Catholics who support placing some limits on abortion | Majority |
| Percentage of Catholics who oppose abortion being legal at any time during a pregnancy | Majority |
| Percentage of Catholics who approve of the Pope | 75% |
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What You'll Learn
Latino Catholics are a growing Democratic group
While the percentage of Catholics who are Democrats varies depending on the specific group of Catholics being considered, Latino Catholics are largely Democratic. Latino Catholics are a growing group within the Catholic Church and have been moving strongly towards the Democrats, especially in California.
A 2012 survey found that seven-in-ten Latino Catholic registered voters identify as Democrats or lean towards the Democratic Party (71%), while about one-in-five identify with or lean toward the Republican Party (21%). A more recent survey from 2023 found that 72% of Latino Catholics identify as Democrats, while 21% are Republicans.
Among Latino Catholics, there is greater support for same-sex marriage among those who attend religious services less than weekly (61%) compared to 46% of weekly Mass-goers. A majority of Latinos (65%) say they were raised Catholic, and older Latinos and those born outside the U.S. are especially likely to have been raised in the faith.
Hispanics generally have more positive attitudes toward the Democratic Party than the Republican Party, viewing the former as more concerned about Hispanics and their interests. A majority of Latino adults (60%) say the Democratic Party represents the interests of people like them somewhat or very well, while about a third (34%) say the same about the Republican Party.
However, it is important to note that Latinos cannot be considered a single bloc. For example, Cuban Americans are predominantly Republican, while Puerto Ricans are predominantly Democratic. Additionally, Mexican Americans in Texas are more willing to vote Republican than Mexican Americans in California.
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White Catholics are more Democratic than White Protestants
Catholics are the largest single religious denomination in America, making up 21.4% of the population (12.6% are white Catholics and 8.6% are Hispanic Catholics). They are also the ultimate "cross-pressured" group, with many blue-collar and lower-middle-class Catholics attracted to the Democrats on issues of social justice and workers' rights, but who lean towards the Republicans when it comes to family and cultural values, including abortion.
Historically, Catholics voted solidly Democratic in presidential elections from 1928 to 1968, with the exception of 1956 when they voted Republican. However, this trend began to change in the 1990s, with Catholics increasingly splitting their ballots, especially in presidential elections. While white Catholics are still more Democratic than white Protestants, Catholic voting today is heavily conditioned by class and region. Well-off Catholics tend to be more Republican, while southern and western Catholics are generally more Republican than those in the northeast and Midwest.
In recent years, Catholics have been split between the two major parties, with nearly equal shares going to each. A majority of white Catholics identify as Republicans, while a majority of Hispanic Catholics are Democrats. This is reflected in the 2020 election, where Joe Biden received 45% of the Catholic vote, compared to Donald Trump's 52%. However, it is important to note that Latino Catholics, a growing part of the Church, have their own distinctive patterns. For example, Mexican Americans in Texas are more willing to vote Republican, while Mexican Americans in California have become a solid Democratic bloc.
Despite the lack of a unified "Catholic vote", Catholics remain important in American politics due to their numbers and their presence in battleground states. Additionally, many Catholics are swing voters, making them a crucial group for both parties to court during elections.
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Catholic voting is conditioned by class and region
Catholicism is the largest single religious denomination in the United States, and Catholics tend to vote for the winner. However, there is no "Catholic vote" in the sense of a bloc that moves predictably toward one party or the other. Catholic voting is heavily conditioned by class and region.
Voting by Class
While there is still a Democratic tendency among Catholics across income, regional, and educational groups, white Catholics are consistently 8 to 12% more Democratic than comparable white Protestants. Many blue-collar and lower-middle-class Catholics lean toward the Democrats on issues of social justice and workers' rights. However, well-off Catholics are more likely to vote Republican. For example, in the story of Mrs. O'Reilly and her son, Mrs. O'Reilly, who always voted Democratic, came from a lower social class than her son, who voted for lots of Republicans.
Voting by Region
Southern and western Catholics are generally more Republican than Catholics in the northeast and Midwest. Latino Catholics, a growing part of the Church, have their own distinctive voting patterns. For example, Mexican Americans in Texas are more willing to vote Republican than Mexican Americans in California, who have become a solid Democratic bloc. Similarly, Cuban Americans are predominantly Republican, while Puerto Ricans are predominantly Democratic.
In addition to class and region, Catholic voting is also influenced by Mass attendance. People who attend Mass weekly or more are different from those who attend less often. For example, U.S. Catholics who do not attend Mass on a weekly basis favored recognition of same-sex marriages and women's ordination.
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Catholics voted solidly Democratic from 1928 to 1968
Catholics have been active in American elections since the mid-19th century, when immigration from Catholic countries in Europe and Latin America began to increase the Catholic population in the United States. From 1928 to 1968, Catholics voted solidly Democratic in presidential elections. During this period, the Democratic Party ran Al Smith, the first Catholic presidential candidate by a major party, in 1928. Despite this, Smith's religion became an issue during the campaign and was a factor in his loss.
In the mid-19th century, Irish Catholics took controlling positions in the Catholic Church, labor unions, and Democratic organizations in big cities, forming overlapping centers of strength. From the 1930s to the 1950s, Catholics formed a core part of the New Deal Coalition, with memberships in the church, labor unions, big-city machines, and the working class, all of which promoted liberal policy positions in domestic affairs and anti-communism during the Cold War.
However, beginning in the 1960s, the Catholic vote started to become more bipartisan, with a number of Catholics and Southern whites abandoning their traditional affiliation with the Democratic Party and shifting towards the Republican Party. This shift is evident in the fact that Nixon received 33% of the Catholic vote in the 1968 election, which increased to 52% in 1972.
Today, Catholic voting behavior is heavily conditioned by class and region. Well-off Catholics are more likely to vote Republican, while blue-collar and lower-middle-class Catholics are pulled towards the Democrats on issues of social justice and workers' rights. Additionally, southern and western Catholics tend to be more Republican, while Catholics in the northeast and Midwest lean more Democratic.
While there is no longer a unified "Catholic vote", Catholics remain a significant voting bloc, comprising 21.4% of the U.S. population and 25-27% of the national electorate. Their voting behavior can be influenced by various factors, including Mass attendance, views on social issues, and the Church's response to scandals.
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Catholics are both Democrats and Republicans
Catholics in the United States are a diverse group, with a range of political affiliations and beliefs. While there is no single "Catholic vote" that consistently aligns with one party, Catholics can be found among both Democrats and Republicans, as well as independents.
Historically, Catholics in the US tended to vote Democratic. From 1928 to 1968, Catholics voted mostly for Democratic candidates in presidential elections, with John F. Kennedy, a Catholic, winning the 1960 election as the Democratic nominee. This trend continued in the following decades, but with less consistency.
In recent years, however, Catholic voting patterns have become more diverse and divided. In the 2020 election, Catholics were almost evenly split between the two major parties, with 52% identifying with or leaning towards the Republican Party and 44% with the Democratic Party. This diversity is also reflected in the approval ratings of political figures such as President Joe Biden, who received a favorable rating from 45% of Catholic voters and an unfavorable rating from 49%, according to one poll.
Several factors influence the political leanings of Catholics. Class and region play a role, with well-off Catholics and those in the South and West being more likely to vote Republican. Additionally, issues such as social justice, workers' rights, family values, abortion, and the death penalty can influence Catholic voters, who may find themselves pulled in different directions by their religious and political beliefs.
The diversity of political views among Catholics presents both a challenge and an opportunity for the Catholic Church. It highlights the need for dialogue and civic conversation within Catholic congregations, where a mix of Democrats and Republicans coexist. Ultimately, Catholics, as a significant portion of the US population and a swing voter group, play an important role in shaping the country's political landscape.
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Frequently asked questions
According to Pew Research Center polls in 2018 and 2019, 47% of Catholics identify with or lean toward the Democratic Party.
77% of Catholic Democrats say abortion should be legal in all or most cases, despite the Catholic Church's formal opposition to abortion.
91% of Catholic Democrats oppose expanding the wall along the border between the US and Mexico.
Catholic Democrats support Pope Francis's stances on Catholic social teaching, which they feel the Republican Party neglects in favor of other issues, such as abortion and homosexuality.
