Joshua Bennett
The Catholic vote was split almost evenly between Joe Biden and Donald Trump in the 2020 US presidential election. Edison exit polls estimate that 52% of Catholic voters went for Biden, and 47% for Trump. AP VoteCast estimates put the numbers at 49% for Biden and 50% for Trump. Biden's Catholicism did not result in a substantial uptick in support among Catholics compared with previous Democratic candidates. In fact, Biden has consistently faced Catholic opposition due to his stance on issues like abortion and same-sex marriage. However, Biden did make gains among certain Catholic groups, such as Hispanic Catholics, who voted 67% in his favor, and non-evangelical Catholics, who favored him 51% to 48%.
| Characteristics | Values |
|---|---|
| Edison exit polls | 52% |
| AP VoteCast estimates | 49% |
| White Catholics | 42% |
| Latinx Catholics | 57% |
| Catholic Latinas | 24 points more than Trump |
| Catholic Latinos | 4 points more than Trump |
| Catholic voters under 30 | 50% |
| Catholic seniors | 46% |
| White Catholics who attend Mass monthly or more often | 36% |
| Catholics who are atheist or agnostic | 86% |
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What You'll Learn
Biden won 52% of Catholic voters in 2020
The 2020 US presidential election saw Joe Biden elected as the country's 46th president. Biden, a lifelong Catholic, won 52% of Catholic voters, according to Edison exit polls. This was a slight increase from the 2016 election, where the Democratic candidate received 46% of the Catholic vote.
Biden's Catholicism was a significant part of his presidential campaign. As only the fourth Catholic major-party nominee in US history, Biden's faith may have played a role in attracting Catholic voters. However, it is important to note that Biden has faced Catholic opposition over the years due to his deviation from Catholic doctrine on issues such as abortion and same-sex marriage.
The Catholic vote in the 2020 election was divided, with Biden receiving 52% support according to Edison exit polls, while other polls, such as AP VoteCast, showed a closer split of 49% for Biden and 50% for Trump. This variation in polling results highlights the complexity of the Catholic vote and the influence of other factors, such as race and ethnicity.
Among Hispanic Catholics, Biden received stronger support, with 67% backing him compared to 32% for Trump. This contrast between the white Catholic vote for Trump and the Latino vote for Biden presented a challenge for church leaders and highlighted the role of race and ethnicity in voting patterns.
The 2020 election also saw a higher voter turnout, with a 7% increase in voter participation compared to the 2016 election. This rise in voter engagement resulted in a total of 66% of US adult citizens casting their ballots. Biden's victory over Trump in the Electoral College and the popular vote further emphasized the impact of various voter groups, including Catholic voters.
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Trump won 47% of Catholic voters in 2020
In the 2020 US Presidential Election, Trump won 47% of Catholic voters according to Edison exit polls. This represented a decrease of three percentage points from his share of the Catholic vote in 2016, which stood at 50%. Joe Biden, his Democratic opponent, won 52% of Catholic voters in 2020, a slight increase from the 46% won by Hillary Clinton in 2016.
The Catholic vote has been split in the last three elections, with minor fluctuations from year to year. The Democratic candidate received 50% in 2012, 46% in 2016, and 52% in 2020, according to exit polls. While Biden's Catholicism may have been a factor in his victory, it did not result in a substantial increase in support among Catholic voters compared to previous Democratic candidates.
Biden's victory in the 2020 election can be attributed to gains among specific Catholic demographics. He won Latinx Catholics by a large margin (57% to 42%), with a significant gender gap: Biden won Catholic Latinas by 24 points while only winning Catholic Latinos by four points. Biden also gained ground among White Catholics, receiving 42% of their vote, an 11-point increase from Clinton's performance in 2016.
The 2020 election also saw a shift in the voting behaviour of Catholics compared to other religious groups. While Trump maintained strong support from White evangelical Protestants, Catholics were a key swing group that delivered critical margins for Biden. The election results highlighted that the divide among Catholic voters was not primarily based on theology but rather on race and ethnicity.
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Catholic voters are split on abortion
The Catholic vote was split in the 2020 election, with Joe Biden receiving a slim majority of 52% according to Edison exit polls, and 49% according to AP VoteCast estimates. This is a slight decrease from the 54% he received in 2008, when he was Barack Obama's running mate. Biden's Catholicism did not result in a substantial uptick in support from Catholic voters, and his deviation from Catholic doctrine on issues like abortion and same-sex marriage has consistently drawn Catholic opposition over the years.
Catholics are a key swing group in elections, and they delivered critical margins for Biden in 2020. Biden won Catholics overall by four points, but lost white Catholics by five points. White Catholics made up 14% of all voters, and Trump captured a solid majority of their votes (57%), while Biden received 42% of the white Catholic vote, an 11-point increase from Clinton in 2016.
Among Hispanic Catholics, Biden received 57% of the vote, compared to 42% for Trump, and among Latinx Catholics, Biden won Catholic Latinas by 24 points while winning Catholic Latinos by just four points. The divide among Catholic voters in the 2020 election was largely attributed to race and ethnicity rather than theology.
Abortion was ranked as the least important issue among Catholic voters, with other issues like the economy, healthcare, and the coronavirus pandemic taking precedence. Catholic voters are split on the issue of abortion, with some opposing Biden due to his support for abortion rights, while others reject the notion that Catholic politicians should vote on issues according to Catholic bishop recommendations.
In conclusion, while Biden's Catholicism may have had a marginal impact on his support among Catholic voters, the Catholic vote was ultimately split, and abortion was not a top priority for this demographic.
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Catholics are a key swing group
The Catholic vote is often a closely contested vote in presidential elections, and this was no different in 2020. The race was particularly tight in Rust Belt battleground states such as Michigan and Wisconsin, which Biden won by a slim margin. The impact of Biden's Catholicism on Catholic voters is complex and not necessarily positive. While Biden made his faith a significant part of his campaign, he has faced Catholic opposition over the years due to his stance on issues such as abortion and same-sex marriage.
Among White Catholics, Trump received more support, with 46-63% of this demographic group voting for him. However, Biden made gains among White non-Hispanic Catholics, receiving 42% of their vote compared to Clinton's 31% in 2016. The Catholic vote was also divided along gender lines, with Biden winning Catholic Latinas by a larger margin than Catholic Latinos.
Catholics' voting behaviour cannot be understood solely through the lens of religion. Other factors, such as age, race, ethnicity, and political affiliation, also played a role in their voting decisions. For example, Catholic voters under 30 tended to favour Democratic candidates, while Catholic seniors were more likely to vote for Biden. Additionally, Catholics who identified as atheist or agnostic were more likely to support Biden, reflecting a broader trend of "religious nones" moving towards the Democratic Party.
In conclusion, Catholics are indeed a key swing group, and their voting behaviour in the 2020 election was influenced by a variety of factors beyond religion. The Catholic vote was split between Biden and Trump, with Biden winning by a small margin, reflecting the faith's longstanding role as a closely contested vote in US presidential elections.
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Biden is only the fourth Catholic major-party nominee in US history
Joe Biden is only the fourth Catholic major-party nominee in US history. The other three Catholic nominees were Al Smith in 1928, John F. Kennedy in 1960, and John Kerry in 2004. Kennedy is the only Catholic president to date.
Biden's Catholicism was a significant part of his presidential campaign. However, it is challenging to determine the impact of his religious affiliation on the election outcome. While Biden's Catholicism may have attracted some Catholic voters, he also faced Catholic opposition due to deviations from Catholic doctrine on issues like abortion and same-sex marriage.
Exit polls from the 2020 election show a slight advantage for Biden among Catholic voters. The Edison exit polls estimate that 52% of Catholic voters supported Biden, while the AP VoteCast estimates show an almost even split with 49% of Catholics voting for Biden. These numbers represent a small increase for Biden compared to 2016, when exit polls showed Clinton receiving 46% of the Catholic vote.
The impact of religion on voting patterns is complex. While Biden's Catholicism may have played a role in his support among Catholic voters, other factors, such as political issues and demographic characteristics, also influenced voting behaviour. Additionally, the Catholic vote has been split in recent elections, indicating that Catholic voters do not necessarily vote as a bloc based solely on religious affiliation.
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Frequently asked questions
According to Edison exit polls, 52% of Catholic voters voted for Biden. AP VoteCast estimates put this number at 49%.
Edison exit polls showed that 46% of Catholics voted for Clinton in 2016. This represents a 5-point increase for the Democratic candidate in 2020.
Biden received more votes from Catholics than Protestants. 19% of Biden voters were Catholic, while 35% were Protestant.
