Sarah Mitchell
In the 2024 US presidential election, former President Donald Trump's victory was bolstered by a notable increase in support from Catholic voters. This shift was particularly evident in states like North Carolina, Florida, and Texas. While the exact percentage of Catholic support for Trump is subject to varying estimates, several polls and exit surveys indicate a range between 50% and 56%. This increase in Catholic support for Trump, especially among White Catholics, has been attributed to various factors, including social issues, economic messaging, and religious beliefs.
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What You'll Learn
Support for Trump among White Catholics
In 2024, Catholic voters were sharply divided over volatile social issues. While some conservative Catholics opposed Harris due to the Democratic Party's staunch support for abortion rights, others took issue with Trump's negative characterisation of migrants and his disinterest in social justice issues.
According to AP VoteCast, Trump's level of support among Catholic voters increased in 2024 compared to 2020. In 2020, the Catholic electorate was almost evenly split, with 50% backing Trump and 49% supporting Biden. In 2024, however, VoteCast found that 54% of Catholic voters supported Trump, while 44% backed Harris. This shift was particularly notable in North Carolina, Florida, and Texas.
A racial divide was also documented among Catholic voters. About 6 in 10 white Catholics supported Trump, while about 4 in 10 backed Harris. Conversely, about 6 in 10 Latino Catholics supported Harris, and approximately 4 in 10 supported Trump.
White Catholics are slowly becoming a clear base of support for the Republican Party. This trend has been observed over several decades and is reflected in the counties where Trump made the largest gains since 2020, which tend to have a higher concentration of religious individuals.
Among White Catholics, support for Trump is higher among those who attend church or Mass at least monthly compared to those who attend less frequently. This relationship is not observed among White Protestants who are not evangelical, where support for Trump is lower among regular churchgoers.
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Catholic voters divided over social issues
In the 2024 United States presidential election, Catholic voters were divided over social issues. The Catholic vote was split between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris, with Trump receiving more support.
Support for Trump
According to VoteCast, an exit survey of over 120,000 voters, Trump received 54% of the Catholic vote compared to Harris' 44%. This shift towards Trump was notable in North Carolina, Florida, and Texas. The survey also documented a racial divide among Catholic voters, with about 6 in 10 white Catholics supporting Trump, while about 6 in 10 Latino Catholics supported Harris.
Trump's support among Catholic voters was influenced by several factors. Some conservative Catholics opposed Harris due to the Democratic Party's staunch support for abortion rights. Trump's stance on abortion was a significant factor, with 90% of voters who believe abortion should be illegal in all or most cases supporting him. Additionally, Trump's economic messaging may have resonated with working-class Hispanic Catholics, who have been affected by economic issues such as the COVID-19 pandemic and the housing affordability crisis.
Support for Harris
On the other hand, some liberal Catholics were critical of Trump's demonization of migrants and his disinterest in social justice issues. Harris, as an outspoken supporter of abortion rights, received support from Latino Catholics, with about 6 in 10 voting for her. Harris also received higher support from Black Protestants, Jewish voters, and Muslim voters.
The 2024 election highlighted divisions among Catholic voters, with social issues such as abortion and immigration playing a significant role in their voting decisions. While Trump gained more support among Catholic voters overall, the race was close, and Catholic voters remained divided along racial and ideological lines.
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Catholic voters' views on abortion
In the 2024 US presidential election, Donald Trump received more support from Catholic voters than his opponent, Kamala Harris. Around 54% of Catholic voters supported Trump, while 44% backed Harris. This shift was notable in North Carolina, Florida, and Texas. The support for Trump was higher among White Catholics, with about 6 in 10 voting for him, compared to about 4 in 10 Latino Catholics.
Catholic voters have differing views on abortion, a volatile social issue that has divided them. Some conservative Catholics opposed Harris due to the Democratic Party's staunch support for abortion rights. On the other hand, more liberal Catholics found Trump unworthy of support because of his stance on migrants and social justice issues.
According to a 2022 Pew Research Center survey, 13% of Catholic adults said abortion should be legal in all cases, while 10% said it should be illegal in all cases. The survey also revealed that Catholic women are slightly more likely than Catholic men to support legal abortion in all or most cases (60% vs. 53%). Additionally, Catholic Republicans tend to be more conservative on abortion issues than Catholic Democrats, with 60% saying abortion should be illegal in most or all cases, compared to 73% of Catholic Democrats who support legal abortion.
While abortion is an important issue for Catholic voters, it is not their top priority. Only 10.1% identified abortion as the most important issue facing the nation, ranking below inflation, the economy, and jobs. Nonetheless, abortion remains a divisive topic among Catholics, with some prioritizing their religious beliefs and others leaning towards more liberal interpretations.
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Catholic support for Trump in 2024 vs 2020
In the 2024 presidential election, Catholic voters were sharply divided over volatile social issues. Some conservative Catholics opposed Kamala Harris due to the Democratic Party's staunch support for abortion rights. In contrast, some liberal Catholics found Trump's demonization of migrants and disinterest in social justice issues unworthy of their support.
According to VoteCast, 54% of Catholic voters supported Trump, and 44% backed Harris, a notable shift from 2020, when the Catholic electorate was almost evenly split between Trump and Biden, with 50% and 49% respectively. This shift was particularly evident in North Carolina, Florida, and Texas.
Among white Catholics, about 6 in 10 supported Trump, while about 4 in 10 backed Harris. Conversely, about 6 in 10 Latino Catholics supported Harris, with about 4 in 10 supporting Trump.
The Washington Post's exit poll revealed a larger victory for Trump among Catholic voters in 2024, with a 15-point margin (56%-41%) compared to his performance in 2020. Another exit poll from the Associated Press VoteCast showed Trump leading by a smaller seven-point margin (52%-45%).
White Catholics, including white evangelicals, have increasingly supported the Republican Party and Trump in 2024. This trend was observed in counties with higher concentrations of religious individuals, where Trump made significant gains since 2020.
While Catholic voters showed a slight preference for Trump in 2024, the shift may have been overstated in exit polls. The actual increase in support for Trump among all Catholics was only 3 percentage points compared to 2020.
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Catholic views on Trump's immigration policies
In the 2024 US presidential election, Donald Trump's support among Catholic voters increased compared to his 2020 campaign. While in 2020, 50% of Catholics backed Trump, this number rose to 54% in 2024. This shift was particularly notable in North Carolina, Florida, and Texas.
Catholic voters were sharply divided over volatile social issues. Some conservative Catholics opposed Kamala Harris due to the Democratic Party's staunch support for abortion rights. In contrast, more liberal Catholics found Trump's immigration policies and disinterest in social justice issues unworthy of support. Trump's campaign promises included a declaration of a national emergency at the US-Mexico border and the reinstatement of the "Remain in Mexico" border policy. He also promised the largest deportation operation in American history, focusing on “the most dangerous criminals”.
Trump's immigration policies have been criticized by Catholic leaders, including Pope Francis, who wrote a letter to US bishops expressing concern over the planned mass deportations. The Texas Catholic Conference of Bishops criticized the use of sweeping generalizations to refer to immigrants and urged Trump to implement just and merciful solutions that recognize the dignity of every person. Similarly, the bishops of New Mexico and Colorado spoke out against mass deportation policies, emphasizing the need for comprehensive immigration reform that respects family unity and addresses the root causes of forced migration.
While some Catholics supported Trump's stance on immigration, others found it challenging to reconcile with their religious beliefs. The Catholic Church's teaching on immigration emphasizes the Gospel's message of human dignity and the command to love God and our brothers and sisters, especially the most vulnerable. Archbishop Thomas Wenski of Miami expressed cautious optimism about a second Trump term, believing in the positive contributions of migrants to the US.
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Frequently asked questions
According to different polls and exit surveys, Trump received between 52% and 56% of the Catholic vote.
In 2020, the Catholic vote was almost evenly split, with 50% backing Trump and 49% supporting Biden.
There were various factors, including Trump's economic messaging, the Democratic Party's support for abortion rights, and Trump's demonization of migrants.
Yes, there was a racial divide among Catholic voters. About 6 in 10 white Catholics supported Trump, while about 6 in 10 Latino Catholics supported Harris.
