Rachel Evans
Catholics in the United States, who make up around one-fifth of the population, have historically been a key voting bloc in elections. From the mid-19th century to 1964, Catholics predominantly voted for the Democratic Party, sometimes at the 80–90% level. However, in recent decades, there has been a shift, and Catholics are now more evenly divided between the two major parties, with some sources stating that around half of Catholic voters identify as Republicans or lean towards the Republican Party, while others state that they are split down the middle, with almost half identifying with or leaning towards the Democratic Party. This partisan divide among Catholics has been a challenge and an opportunity for the church, with Catholic preachers traditionally avoiding politics in their sermons. The voting behaviour of Catholics is influenced by various factors, including their racial and ethnic backgrounds, with White Catholics more likely to vote Republican and Hispanic Catholics more likely to vote Democrat.
| Characteristics | Values |
|---|---|
| Percentage of Catholic voters in the US | 25% to 27% of the national electorate |
| Importance of faith to Catholics | 85% report their faith to be "somewhat" to "very important" |
| Catholic voters' political leanings | 48% Republican, 47% Democrat |
| Catholic voters' leanings by ethnicity | 57% of White Catholics identify with or lean Republican, 60% of Hispanic Catholics identify with or lean Democrat |
| Catholic voters' leanings by religious service attendance | 61% of Catholics who attend services monthly or more identify as Republican or lean Republican, 47% of less frequent attenders align with the GOP |
| Catholic voters' perceptions of candidates' religiousness | 59% say Biden is "very" or "somewhat" religious, 37% say the same of Trump |
| Catholic voters' approval of Trump's performance as president | 54% of White Catholics approve, 69% of Hispanic Catholics disapprove |
| Catholic vote in the 2020 election | 52% voted for Biden, 47% voted for Trump according to Edison exit polls; 49% voted for Biden, 50% voted for Trump according to AP VoteCast estimates |
| Catholic vote in the 2016 election | 44% voted for Clinton, 52% voted for Trump according to Pew Research Center |
| Catholic vote in the 2012 election | 50% voted for Obama, 48% voted for Romney |
| Catholic vote in the 2008 election | 54% voted for Obama, 45% voted for McCain |
| Catholic vote in the 2004 election | 47% voted for Kerry, 52% voted for Bush |
| Catholic vote in the 1956 election | Voted Republican according to National Election Studies |
| Catholic vote from 1928 to 1968 | Voted Democratic according to Gallup |
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What You'll Learn
- Catholics have voted for the election winner since 1928
- Catholic voters are split between Republicans and Democrats
- White Catholics lean Republican, Hispanic Catholics lean Democrat
- Catholic voters are influenced by their attendance at religious services
- Catholic voters are influenced by the candidate's stance on abortion and same-sex marriage
Catholics have voted for the election winner since 1928
Catholics in the United States have been actively involved in elections since the mid-19th century. In 1776, they comprised less than 1% of the population, but this number grew significantly from the 1840s onwards due to immigration from predominantly Catholic countries in Europe and later Latin America. Today, Catholic voters make up 25% to 27% of the national electorate.
Historically, Catholics were staunch Democrats. From the mid-19th century until 1964, Catholics voted solidly for Democratic candidates, sometimes at the 80–90% level. In 1928, Al Smith became the first Roman Catholic to gain a major party's nomination for president, although he was ultimately defeated. It wasn't until 1960 that John F. Kennedy became the first Catholic president. Since the 1960s, however, the Catholic vote has become more bipartisan, with Catholics swinging back and forth between the Republican and Democratic candidates in recent presidential elections.
In the 2016 election, Catholics supported Donald Trump over Hillary Clinton, with 52% of Catholics backing Trump compared to 44% for Clinton. This trend continued in the 2020 election, where Trump received 58% of the Catholic vote. However, there are notable differences within the Catholic electorate. White Catholics are more likely to identify with or lean toward the Republican Party, while Hispanic Catholics tend to lean Democratic.
The political diversity within the Catholic population in the United States reflects the range of political opinions held by American Catholics, even on issues where the Catholic Church has taken a clear stance. While Catholics have voted for the election winner in the majority of elections since 1928, their votes are not solely determined by religious affiliation or the presence of a Catholic candidate on the ticket. Instead, they are influenced by a variety of factors that shape the complex political landscape of the nation.
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Catholic voters are split between Republicans and Democrats
Catholics in the United States make up about one-fifth of the population, or about 68 million members. They represent 25% to 27% of the national electorate, and 85% of them consider their faith to be "somewhat" or "very important". From the mid-19th century until 1964, Catholics were predominantly Democratic, sometimes at the 80–90% level. In the 1840s, 75% of Irish and German Catholics in America voted for Democratic presidential candidates.
However, in recent years, Catholic voters have been split between the Republican and Democratic parties. According to Pew Research Center polls in 2018 and 2019, around half of Catholic registered voters (48%) described themselves as Republicans or leaned towards the Republican Party, while roughly the same proportion (47%) identified with or leaned towards the Democratic Party. In the 2020 election, Catholic voters were almost evenly split between Biden and Trump, with Biden receiving 49% to 52% of the Catholic vote, and Trump receiving 47% to 50%.
The partisan divide among Catholics is influenced by racial and ethnic differences. A majority of White Catholics identify as Republicans or lean Republican (57% according to a 2020 survey), while a majority of Hispanic Catholics are Democrats or lean Democratic (60%). This divide was evident in the 2016 election, where 64% of White Catholics voted for Trump, while 78% of Hispanic Catholics voted for Clinton.
The Catholic partisan divide presents a challenge for Catholic preachers, who must navigate a congregation with diverse political views. As a result, Catholic clergy traditionally avoid endorsing political candidates or parties and tend to stay away from politics in their sermons. The combination of official nonpartisanship and a congregational mix of Democrats and Republicans makes Catholic churches a unique space for civic conversation.
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White Catholics lean Republican, Hispanic Catholics lean Democrat
Catholics in the United States comprise about 68 million members, making up around one-fifth of the population. They represent 25% to 27% of the national electorate. Since the 1960s, Catholic voters have been bipartisan, with their votes split between the two major parties.
White Catholics lean Republican
Non-Hispanic white Catholics have reliably voted for the Republican Party since the 1970s. In the 2016 presidential election, 52% of Catholics voted for Republican Donald Trump, while 44% voted for Democrat Hillary Clinton. In the 2020 election, 54% of White Catholics said they would vote for Trump or lean that way, and 64% of White Catholics voted for Trump in 2016. Nearly six-in-ten White Catholic registered voters (57%) identify with or lean toward the Republican Party, marking a significant shift since 2008, when only four-in-ten (41%) supported the GOP.
Hispanic Catholics lean Democrat
A majority of Hispanic or Latino Catholics have voted for the Democratic Party since the 1970s. In the 2016 election, 78% of Hispanic Catholics voted for Clinton, and in 2020, 65% said they would vote for Biden. Most Hispanic Catholic voters (68%) identify as Democrats or lean Democratic, a share that has been stable over the past decade.
Reasons for the partisan leanings
Some sources suggest that the partisan leanings of White and Hispanic Catholics may be influenced by their views on specific policy issues rather than the teachings of their church. For example, on the issue of abortion, 77% of Democratic and Democratic-leaning Catholic adults say it should be legal in all or most cases, while 63% of Republican and Republican-leaning Catholics say it should be illegal. On immigration, 91% of Catholic Democrats oppose expanding the wall along the US-Mexico border, while 81% of Catholic Republicans favor expansion. Additionally, the Republican Party has been perceived by some as leaning into racism, which may be a factor in the voting preferences of Hispanic Catholics, who may seek to avoid a government that could actively harm them and their communities.
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Catholic voters are influenced by their attendance at religious services
In the United States, Catholic voters comprise 25% to 27% of the national electorate. While Catholics have been active in American elections since the mid-19th century, there has never been an American Catholic religious party. From the mid-19th century until 1964, Catholics were predominantly Democratic, with 75% of Irish and German Catholics voting for Democratic presidential candidates in the late 19th century. However, in recent years, Catholic voters have been more evenly split between the two major parties. According to Pew Research Center polls from 2018 and 2019, around half of Catholic registered voters (48%) identify as Republicans or lean Republican, while 47% identify with or lean toward the Democratic Party.
The influence of religious service attendance on Catholic voters' political preferences is evident. Regular attendance at religious services among White, Hispanic, and Asian voters is associated with an increased inclination toward the Republican Party. Among Catholic voters who attend services monthly or more, 61% identify as Republicans or lean Republican, compared to 47% among those who attend less frequently. This trend is not observed among Black voters, where regular attendance at religious services does not significantly impact their political affiliation.
While Catholic voters' preferences have shifted over time, their voting behavior is influenced by various factors, including their religious beliefs and the issues they prioritize. For example, abortion and homosexual rights are issues that may be influenced by religious values, and candidates' positions on these topics can impact Catholic voters' choices. Additionally, the presence of a Catholic candidate on the ticket does not guarantee the Catholic vote, as Catholics hold diverse political opinions, even on issues where the Church has a clear stance.
It is worth noting that the influence of religious beliefs on voting behavior is complex. While some studies indicate that religious beliefs are a significant factor in voting decisions, others suggest that the influence may be limited. Furthermore, individuals may be reluctant to acknowledge the impact of external influences, such as religion, on their political choices. Nonetheless, understanding the interplay between religious service attendance and voting behavior provides valuable insights into the complex dynamics of Catholic voters' preferences and their influence on American elections.
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Catholic voters are influenced by the candidate's stance on abortion and same-sex marriage
In the United States, Catholics represent one of the largest and most diverse religious groups, comprising about one-fifth of the population. While Catholic voters make up 25% to 27% of the national electorate, they are split fairly evenly between the two major parties, with 48% identifying as Republican or leaning Republican, and 47% identifying as Democratic or leaning Democratic.
Catholics have been active in American elections since the mid-19th century, and their voting preferences have evolved over time. From the mid-19th century until 1964, Catholics were largely Democratic, with 75% of Irish and German Catholics voting for Democratic presidential candidates in the late 19th century. However, in recent years, Catholic voters have been more divided, with their choices influenced by various factors, including the candidates' stances on social issues such as abortion and same-sex marriage.
Abortion has been a contentious issue among Catholic voters. While Catholic moral teaching holds that abortion is the unjust taking of innocent life, and the church opposes its legalization, Catholic voters have considered other factors when evaluating candidates. Some Catholic voters prioritize a candidate's position on abortion above all else, refusing to vote for anyone who supports abortion rights. However, others apply the principles outlined by then-Cardinal Joseph Ratzinger (later Pope Benedict XVI), who suggested that while abortion is of singular significance, Catholics should also consider other serious issues when deciding how to vote. This view is supported by Pope Francis, who has emphasized that abortion is not the only issue that Catholics should focus on.
The stance on same-sex marriage also influences Catholic voters. While the Catholic Church does not recognize or celebrate same-sex marriages, Catholic laity has increasingly voiced its support for marriage equality. Organizations like Catholics for Marriage Equality have played a significant role in U.S. elections, advocating for LGBTQ+ rights and nondiscrimination protections. Despite the church's official stance, many Catholics have shown support for candidates who favor LGBTQ+ inclusion and same-sex marriage, reflecting a growing divergence between the official teachings of the church and the views of its members.
In summary, Catholic voters in the United States are influenced by the candidates' stances on abortion and same-sex marriage, but their decisions are also shaped by a range of other factors. The diversity of opinions among Catholics has led to a split in their voting preferences, with significant numbers supporting both major parties.
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Frequently asked questions
Catholics in the US do not vote for a particular party. From the mid-19th century to 1964, Catholics were largely Democratic, but they have since become more evenly split between the two major parties. In the 2020 election, 52% of Catholic voters voted for Biden, while 47% voted for Trump.
Yes, there are some trends in voting behavior among Catholics. White Catholics are more likely to vote Republican, while Hispanic Catholics tend to vote Democratic. Additionally, Catholics who attend religious services more frequently are more likely to identify as Republicans.
No, having a Catholic candidate does not guarantee support from Catholic voters. For example, Joe Biden is Catholic, but his faith did not result in a substantial increase in support from Catholic voters.
