Joshua Bennett
The 2021 census revealed that, for the first time in Northern Ireland's 101-year history, there are more people from a Catholic background than a Protestant one. The Catholic population stands at 42-46% of the total population, while 43-46% are Protestant. This demographic shift has been long expected, given the ageing Protestant population and the younger Catholic population. The Catholic plurality in Northern Ireland does not necessarily equate to a preference for a united Ireland, as opinion polls show that more people favour staying in the UK.
| Characteristics | Values |
|---|---|
| Catholic population in NI | 42% - 46% |
| Protestant population in NI | 43% - 45.1% |
| Population born outside NI | 13.5% |
| Residents for whom English is not the main language | 4.6% |
| Main language other than English | Polish (1.1%) |
| Ability in Irish | 12.4% |
| Ability in Ulster Scots | 10.4% |
| Ethnic minority groups | 3.4% |
| People with Irish identity | 29.1% - 31.9% |
| People with British-only identity | 31.86% - 31.9% |
| People with Northern Irish-only identity | 19.78% - 19.8% |
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What You'll Learn
Catholics outnumber Protestants in NI for the first time
The 2021 census revealed that, for the first time in Northern Ireland's 101-year history, those from a Catholic background outnumbered those from a Protestant background. This was a significant and historic moment, although not entirely surprising, as the population pattern had been moving in that direction for some time.
The census figures showed that 45.7% of the population were Catholic or from a Catholic background, compared with 43.48% from Protestant or other Christian backgrounds. This was a notable shift from the 2011 census figures, which were 45% Catholic and 48% Protestant. The demographic tilt was expected, but it still delivered a psychological blow to unionists, who had relied on a Protestant majority to safeguard Northern Ireland's position in the UK.
The shift in the religious landscape of Northern Ireland can be attributed to several factors. Firstly, there has been a decline in the number of people from a Protestant background, with a drop of more than 10% in the last 20 years. This decline has been linked to an ageing Protestant population with high mortality rates. In contrast, the Catholic population has a younger demographic profile, and their numbers have risen by around 3% in the same 20-year period.
Additionally, higher birth rates among Catholics have gradually closed the gap, as they tend to identify more as Irish, while Protestants tend to identify as British. This has had implications for political identities and voting patterns, with a loosening of British identity observed in the census. The results showed that 31.9% identified as British-only, 29.1% as Irish-only, and 19.8% as Northern Irish-only. These figures represent a shift from the 2011 census, where the figures were 40% British-only, 25% Irish-only, and 21% Northern Irish-only.
The increasing diversity and secularity of Northern Ireland's population should also be noted. While Catholicism is the largest religion, with 42.3% describing themselves as Catholic, there has been a diversification of Protestant faiths, with 16.6% Presbyterians, 11.5% Church of Ireland, and 2.3% Methodists. The number of people from ethnic minority backgrounds has also increased, with 3.4% of the population belonging to ethnic minority groups, double the figure from 2011.
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NI's population is at a record high
Northern Ireland's population is at its highest level since it was established in 1921, with a total of 1,903,100 people, according to the 2021 census. The population has been steadily increasing, with a 5% increase from 2011. This increase is partly due to the rising proportion of the population born outside Northern Ireland, which rose from 11% in 2011 to 13.5% in 2021. The number of people from an ethnic minority background has also increased, with around 65,600 people belonging to ethnic minority groups in 2021, double the number in 2011.
The 2021 census also revealed a significant shift in the religious landscape of Northern Ireland. For the first time in its 101-year history, there are more people from a Catholic background than from a Protestant background. Approximately 45.7% of the population is Catholic or was brought up Catholic, compared to 43.48% who are Protestant or from a Protestant background. This shift has been attributed to the ageing and declining Protestant population and the relatively younger Catholic population. The Catholic population has risen by around 3% in the last 20 years, while the Protestant population has dropped by more than 10%.
While the Catholic population in Northern Ireland has been increasing, it is important to note that the overall trend is towards secularism and diversification. The number of people who do not subscribe to any religion has been rising, particularly among the younger generations. Additionally, the concept of Irish identity has been evolving, with more people identifying as Irish, but not exclusively so. The term 'Irish' is no longer synonymous with 'Catholic', as one in four self-described Catholics in Northern Ireland do not identify as Irish.
The demographic changes highlighted by the 2021 census have had political implications. The census showed a loosening of British identity, with a decrease in the number of people identifying as British only since 2011. This shift in identity has energized those pushing for a border poll and a united Ireland, as it indicates a potential shift away from the traditional unionist-nationalist divide. However, opinion polls continue to show that more people favour staying in the UK rather than uniting with Ireland.
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Catholics are younger, Protestants older
The 2021 census revealed a significant demographic shift in Northern Ireland, with the Catholic population outnumbering Protestants for the first time in the country's 101-year history. While this shift was expected, it still came as a blow to unionists, who had relied on a Protestant majority to maintain Northern Ireland's position in the UK.
The census figures showed that 45.7% of the population is Catholic or from a Catholic background, compared to 43.48% from a Protestant or other Christian background. This shift can be attributed to two main factors: the ageing and declining Protestant population and the younger profile of the Catholic population.
In the 20 years preceding the 2021 census, the number of people from a Protestant background dropped by more than 10%, a decline linked to an ageing population with high mortality rates. In contrast, the Catholic population is much younger, and over the same 20-year period, it rose by around 3%. This rise can be partly attributed to higher birth rates among Catholics, who also tend to identify more as Irish, while Protestants tend to identify as British.
The increasing Catholic population in Northern Ireland is part of a broader trend of diversification and secularisation. While the country was created in 1921 to ensure the precedence of Protestantism, the latest census figures indicate a more complex religious and national landscape. For example, while almost one-third of the population described themselves as Irish, not all Catholics identified as such, demonstrating that the terms 'Irish' and 'Catholic' are not interchangeable in Northern Ireland. Additionally, the gap between those from a Protestant background and those who currently describe themselves as Protestant is larger than the corresponding gap for Catholics, indicating a greater degree of secularisation among Protestants.
In conclusion, the 2021 census revealed a significant shift in Northern Ireland's demographic landscape, with a younger Catholic population outnumbering an older and declining Protestant population for the first time. This shift has potential implications for the country's political and cultural identity, particularly regarding the question of Irish unification.
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NI's population is diversifying
Northern Ireland's population is at its highest level since it was established in 1921. The 2021 census recorded a population of 1,903,100, a 5% increase from 2011. The population is also diversifying, with the proportion of people born outside Northern Ireland rising from 11% in 2011 to 13.5% in 2021. The number of people belonging to ethnic minority groups has also increased, with 3.4% of the population (65,600 people) belonging to ethnic minorities in 2021, double the figure from 2011 and quadruple that of 2001. The largest groups are mixed ethnicities (14,400), black (11,000), Indian (9,900), Chinese (9,500), and Filipino (4,500).
The 2021 census also revealed a shift in religious demographics. For the first time in Northern Ireland's history, there are more people from a Catholic background than a Protestant one. 45.7% of the population is Catholic or from a Catholic background, compared to 43.48% from a Protestant or other Christian background. This shift has been attributed to a decline in the Protestant population due to ageing and high mortality rates, while the Catholic population is relatively younger and has seen a slight increase.
While Christian denominations still account for the majority of the population's religious beliefs and backgrounds, there is a growing secularity, particularly among younger generations. The number of people who do not subscribe to any religion has increased, and minority religions, including Islam and Judaism, now account for 1.5% of the population.
In terms of national identity, the census showed a loosening of British identity, with 31.9% identifying as British-only, compared to 40% in 2011. Meanwhile, 29.1% identified as Irish-only, up from 25% in 2011, and 19.8% as Northern Irish-only, down from 21% in 2011. These shifts in identity and demographics have significant implications for political identities and voting patterns in Northern Ireland.
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NI's population is becoming more secular
While Catholicism is the largest religion in Northern Ireland (NI), the country's population is becoming more secular. The 2021 census revealed that 42% of NI's 1.9 million people describe themselves as Catholic, while 46% say they were brought up in the faith. This shift towards a Catholic plurality is largely due to a younger Catholic population and a decline in the number of people from a Protestant background, which has dropped by more than 10% in 20 years. However, it's important to note that the majority of NI's population does not identify as Catholic, and the number of people who do not subscribe to any religion is also growing.
The 2021 census showed that 19% of respondents were either non-religious or did not state a religion. This is a significant increase from the 2011 census, where 9% said they were not brought up in any religion. The diversification of NI's population is also evident in the various Protestant faiths adhered to. While the number of people from a Protestant background is declining, those who do identify with a Protestant faith are spread across different denominations, including Presbyterians (16.6%), the Church of Ireland (11.5%), and Methodists (2.3%).
The demographic shift towards a Catholic plurality has had an impact on national identity and voting patterns in NI. The 2021 census showed a loosening of British identity, with 31.9% identifying as British-only, compared to 40% in 2011. Meanwhile, 29.1% identified as Irish-only, an increase from 25% in 2011. This shift in national identity has also been reflected in the rise of Sinn Féin, a nationalist party, and the decline of unionist parties. In the May 2022 assembly election, Sinn Féin overtook the Democratic Unionist Party as the largest party in NI, boosting calls for a referendum on Irish unity.
The increasing secularity of NI's population is particularly notable among younger generations, who are more likely to identify as non-religious. This trend towards secularism is not unique to NI and can be seen as part of a broader shift in societal values and attitudes towards religion worldwide. As societies become more diverse and information more accessible, people are re-evaluating their relationships with religious institutions and traditions. While the Catholic population in NI has grown, the overall trend towards secularism suggests that religious affiliation and identification may continue to evolve in the coming years.
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Frequently asked questions
Yes, according to the 2021 census, the Catholic population in Northern Ireland has increased to 45.7% of the total population, compared to 43.48% from Protestant or other Christian backgrounds. This is the first time in Northern Ireland's 101-year history that those from a Catholic background outnumber those from a Protestant background.
The population of Northern Ireland as of May 2022 is 1.9 million, the highest figure recorded since its establishment in 1921.
The 2011 census recorded a Catholic population of 45.1% in Northern Ireland, compared to 48.4% from a Protestant or other Christian background.
According to the Annuarium Statisticum Ecclesiae, the global Catholic population increased by 1.15% between 2022 and 2023, rising from approximately 1.39 billion to 1.406 billion.
In the past 20 years, the number of people from a Protestant background has dropped by more than 10%. This decline has been linked to an ageing population with high mortality rates.
