Ethan Walker
Catholics represent one of the largest and most diverse religious groups in the United States, with over one-fifth of Americans identifying as Catholic. In the 2008 U.S. presidential election, Barack Obama received 54% of the Catholic vote, compared to John McCain's 45%. This marked a shift from 2004, when John Kerry, the Catholic nominee for the Democratic Party, received 47% of the Catholic vote, while George W. Bush received 52%. Obama's success among Catholic voters was attributed to various factors, including his vision of the common good, his values on issues such as ending the Iraq War and providing affordable healthcare, and his early work as a community organizer. Additionally, Obama's running mate, Joe Biden, was Catholic, which may have influenced Catholic voting preferences.
| Characteristics | Values |
|---|---|
| Year of Obama's victory | 2008 |
| Obama's vote share among Catholics | 54% |
| McCain's vote share among Catholics | 45% |
| Obama's vote share among Catholics (Zogby poll) | 53.7% |
| McCain's vote share among Catholics (Zogby poll) | 41.5% |
| Obama's margin among Catholic voters (Zogby poll) | 12 points |
| Catholic vote share in 2012 | 50% |
| Romney's vote share among Catholics in 2012 | 48% |
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What You'll Learn
Obama won the Catholic vote in 2008 and 2012
Catholics represent one of the largest and most diverse religious groups in the United States, with over one-fifth of Americans identifying as Catholic. In recent presidential elections, Catholic voters have swung back and forth between the Republican and Democratic candidates.
In 2008, Barack Obama won the Catholic vote, receiving 54% to John McCain's 45%. This was a notable shift from 2004, when Catholics voted for George W. Bush over John Kerry, 52% to 47%. Obama's victory among Catholic voters in 2008 was attributed to various factors, including his growing support among Catholics as they became more familiar with him and his policies. Obama's vision of the common good and his values on issues such as ending the war in Iraq, providing decent jobs, and ensuring affordable healthcare resonated with many Catholic voters. Additionally, the economy was a significant issue in 2008, and it is believed that Catholic voters were influenced by their economic concerns when casting their ballots.
In 2012, Obama once again won the Catholic vote, albeit by a narrower margin. He received 50% of the Catholic vote, while his Republican opponent, Mitt Romney, received 48%. This continued the trend of Catholic voters being split between the two major parties, with minor fluctuations from year to year. The choice of running mates may also have played a role, as both Obama and Romney chose Catholic vice-presidential candidates: Joe Biden and Paul Ryan, respectively.
It is worth noting that the Catholic vote is not monolithic, and Catholics have not voted as a bloc since the early 1960s, when they solidly backed John F. Kennedy, the first and only Catholic president of the United States. Since then, Catholic voting patterns have been influenced by various factors, including the candidates' policies, personal characteristics, and economic conditions. Additionally, there are differences within the Catholic community, with non-Hispanic white Catholics generally leaning Republican and Hispanic or Latino Catholics tending to vote Democratic.
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The Catholic vote was split in 2016
Catholics represent one of the largest and most diverse religious groups in the United States, with over one-fifth of Americans identifying as Catholic. In recent presidential elections, Catholic voters have swung back and forth between the Republican and Democratic candidates, with the Catholic vote split in 2016.
In 2016, Donald Trump won the Catholic vote over Hillary Clinton, with 50% of Catholics voting for Trump and 46% for Clinton, according to exit polls. However, there was a significant racial divide among Catholic voters, with 64% of White Catholics voting for Trump, while 78% of Hispanic Catholics voted for Clinton. This racial divide in the Catholic vote reflects broader trends, as White Catholics tend to be more politically conservative, while Hispanic Catholics tend to be more liberal.
The Catholic vote has been split between the two major parties in the last several elections. In 2008, Barack Obama won the Catholic vote over John McCain by a margin of 54% to 45%. In 2012, Obama again won the Catholic vote, this time against Mitt Romney, by a slim margin of 50% to 48%. These results demonstrate that Catholic voters' loyalties are unpredictable and in flux, with no single candidate or party consistently winning their support.
While the Catholic Church hierarchy can influence the faithful, it cannot dictate their voting choices. Catholic voters prioritize various issues, such as abortion, same-sex marriage, immigration, and access to guns, which may align more with one party or the other. Additionally, Catholic voters may be influenced by the candidates' personal characteristics and life choices, such as their vision for the country and their values.
In summary, the Catholic vote was indeed split in 2016, with a slight majority favouring Trump over Clinton. This reflects the diverse and independent nature of Catholic voters in the United States, who make up a significant portion of the electorate.
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White Catholics tend to vote Republican
Since the 1970s, non-Hispanic white Catholics have voted for the Republican Party, with a majority of Hispanic or Latino Catholics voting for the Democratic Party. In the 1980 election, Ronald Reagan won about half of the Catholic vote, with a majority of non-Hispanic whites. Reagan Democrats, comprising non-Hispanic white, blue-collar Catholics, made up 25% of the Democrats who voted for Reagan.
In 2004, 52% of Catholics voted for George W. Bush, with the figure being higher for white Catholics at 56%. In 2008, Barack Obama received 54% of the Catholic vote, and in 2012, he received 50%. Obama won the Catholic vote in both his elections, beating John McCain by seven points in 2008 (54% vs. 45%) and Mitt Romney by a smaller margin in 2012 (50% vs. 48%).
In 2016, Donald Trump won the Catholic vote over Hillary Clinton (50% vs. 46%), and in 2020, the split remained relatively even between Joe Biden and Trump. According to a Pew Research Center survey, 64% of White Catholics voted for Trump in 2016, while 78% of Hispanic Catholics voted for Clinton.
In 2023, the percentage of Catholics who identify as Democrats remained at 33%, while the percentage of Catholic Republicans increased from 21% to 28%. About six-in-ten White Catholic registered voters (57%) identify with or lean toward the Republican Party, marking a shift since 2008, when only four-in-ten (41%) supported the GOP.
White Catholics who are registered Democrats have been shown to defect to the Republican Party in large numbers during election years, particularly during Ronald Reagan's presidential elections. White Catholics who are registered Republicans are less likely to defect to the Democrats.
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Hispanic Catholics tend to vote Democrat
In the 2008 US presidential election, Barack Obama received 54% of the Catholic vote, compared to John McCain's 45%. In 2012, Obama won 50% of the Catholic vote, while Mitt Romney received 48%. These figures indicate that Catholics tend to vote for the winner, as seen in Obama's victories in both elections.
While there is no single "Catholic vote," with Catholics being a diverse group that does not move predictably towards one party, it is worth noting that Hispanic Catholics tend to vote Democrat. This is in contrast to non-Hispanic white Catholics, who have voted majority Republican since the 1970s. The fastest-growing Catholic group in the US is Latino, and their votes are not homogeneous either. Cuban Americans tend to be Republican, while Puerto Ricans tend to vote Democratic. Mexican Americans in Texas may be more willing to vote Republican than those in California, who have become a solid Democratic bloc.
Hispanic Catholics are more likely than white Catholics to identify as liberal, and they view the Democratic Party as more concerned about their interests. They are also more likely to say that Democrats work hard to earn their votes. A majority of Latino adults (60%) believe that the Democratic Party represents the interests of people like them, while only about a third (34%) say the same about the Republican Party.
On specific policy issues, Hispanic Catholics' preferences align with the Democratic Party. For example, 91% of Catholic Democrats oppose expanding the wall along the US-Mexico border, an idea that has been condemned by the US Conference of Catholic Bishops and Pope Francis. Additionally, 78% of Hispanic Catholics voted for Clinton in the 2016 presidential election, while 64% of white Catholics voted for Trump. In the 2020 election, 65% of Hispanic Catholic registered voters said they would vote for Biden, while 59% of white Catholic registered voters said they would vote for Trump.
In summary, Hispanic Catholics tend to vote Democrat due to their views on specific policies, their perception of the Democratic Party as more aligned with their interests, and their belief that Democrats work harder to earn their votes. This trend has been consistent over the past decade, with a majority of Hispanic Catholics identifying as Democrats or leaning Democratic.
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Bishops' influence on Catholic voters
In the 2008 U.S. presidential election, Barack Obama received 54% of the Catholic vote, compared to John McCain's 45%. This was despite the fact that 89 Catholic bishops had proclaimed that Catholics should make abortion their defining issue in the election, and Obama supported unrestricted abortion rights.
While the Catholic hierarchy cannot dictate who Catholics vote for, they do have a substantial influence over the faithful in their dioceses. Bishops can direct significant time, energy, and money to support the issues that are important to them, and politicians are aware of this influence. In the 2008 election, Catholic voters' growing comfort with Obama and his positions on issues such as social justice, ending the war in Iraq, providing decent jobs, and ensuring affordable healthcare may have contributed to his support among Catholics.
The Catholic vote in the United States is diverse and unpredictable, with Catholics of different racial and ethnic backgrounds tending to vote differently. Since the 1970s, non-Hispanic white Catholics have voted majority Republican, while a majority of Hispanic or Latino Catholics have voted Democrat. In the 2016 presidential election, 64% of White Catholics voted for Donald Trump, while 78% of Hispanic Catholics voted for Hillary Clinton.
In addition to racial and ethnic differences, Catholic voters' political preferences may also be influenced by their age, with younger Catholics tending to be more liberal and supportive of Democratic candidates.
Overall, while Catholic bishops may have some influence on Catholic voters, the Catholic vote in the United States is not monolithic and is influenced by a variety of factors, including racial and ethnic background, age, and political issues beyond abortion.
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Frequently asked questions
Obama won 54% of the Catholic vote in 2008, with 45% voting for McCain.
Obama won 50% of the Catholic vote in 2012, with 48% voting for Romney.
More Catholics voted for Obama than McCain in 2008.
