Grace Thompson
In the 2016 United States presidential election, 52% of Catholic voters supported Donald Trump, while 44% voted for Hillary Clinton, according to the Pew Research Center. This was a notable shift from 2008, when Catholic voters supported Barack Obama over John McCain by a substantial margin. The voting pattern of Catholics in the United States has been influenced by various factors, including ethnicity, geographic location, and the candidates' stance on religious issues. While White Catholics tend to lean towards the Republican Party, Hispanic Catholics largely support the Democratic Party.
| Characteristics | Values |
|---|---|
| Year | 2016 |
| Catholic voters who voted for Hillary Clinton | 44% or 46% |
| Catholic voters who voted for Donald Trump | 52% or 50% |
| Hispanic Catholic voters who voted for Hillary Clinton | 78% or 79% |
| White Catholic voters who voted for Donald Trump | 64% |
| Catholic voters who voted for Joe Biden in 2020 | 49% or 52% |
| Catholic voters who voted for Donald Trump in 2020 | 50% or 47% |
| Catholic voters who voted for Donald Trump in 2024 | 56% |
| Catholic voters who are Republicans | 47% to 57% |
| Catholic voters who are Democrats | 47% |
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What You'll Learn
In 2016, 44% of Catholics voted for Hillary Clinton
The Catholic vote has been an important feature of American politics for a long time. In the 1800s and 1900s, European Catholics arriving in America became a significant voice in local, state, and national politics. For most of the 20th century, white ethnics were an important voting bloc in the Democratic Party. Since the 1970s, however, non-Hispanic white Catholics have voted majority Republican, with a majority of Hispanic or Latino Catholics voting Democrat.
In the 21st century, the white population, and white Catholics in particular, have been a declining electoral force. In 1970, 88% of the voting population was white; today, it is 67%. Despite this, the Catholic vote remains important. In 2020, the Catholic vote was split, with 49% of Catholics voting for Biden and 50% for Trump, according to AP VoteCast estimates.
The Catholic vote has been described as unpredictable, with Catholic voters switching support between Democratic and Republican candidates in recent elections. This was reflected in the 2024 election, where Catholic voters favoured Trump-Vance over Biden-Harris. This was despite Biden being only the fourth Catholic major-party nominee in US history.
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Hispanic Catholics tend to vote Democrat
While there is no single "Catholic vote" that moves predictably towards one party or another, it is clear that Hispanic Catholics tend to vote Democrat. This has been a fairly stable trend over the past decade. In 2016, 78% of Hispanic Catholics voted for Hillary Clinton, while 64% of non-Hispanic White Catholics voted for Donald Trump.
There are several reasons why Hispanic Catholics tend to vote Democrat. Firstly, Democrats are seen as more concerned about Hispanic interests. A Pew Research Center survey found that 60% of Latino adults believe the Democratic Party represents their interests, compared to only 34% for the Republican Party. This view is shared by Hispanic Catholics, with 67% saying the Democratic Party represents their interests, while only 32% say the same for the Republican Party.
Hispanic Catholics are also more likely to believe that Democrats work hard to earn their votes. According to a Pew Research Center survey, 42% of Hispanic Catholics say that Democrats work hard to earn Latino votes, compared to only 25% for Republicans. This may be due to the perception that the Democratic Party is more welcoming of immigrants, an issue that is important to many Hispanic Catholics.
In addition, Hispanic Catholics tend to be more aligned with Democratic policies than Republican ones. For example, on the issue of abortion, 77% of Democratic Catholic adults believe that abortion should be legal in all or most cases, compared to only 37% of Republican Catholic adults. Similarly, on the issue of immigration, 91% of Catholic Democrats oppose expanding the wall between the US and Mexico, while only 19% of Catholic Republicans share this view.
Finally, it is worth noting that the Catholic Church has taken a stance against some Republican policies. For example, the US Conference of Catholic Bishops and Pope Francis have both condemned Trump's plan to build a border wall, describing it as "not Christian." This may have influenced Hispanic Catholics to vote for the Democratic candidate.
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Non-Hispanic white Catholics tend to vote Republican
Since the 1970s, non-Hispanic white Catholics have predominantly voted for the Republican Party. This trend was particularly evident during the presidential elections of Ronald Reagan and Richard Nixon. Reagan, for instance, won about half of the Catholic vote, with a majority of these voters being non-Hispanic whites. This group, often referred to as "Reagan Democrats", constituted 25% of the Democrats who voted for Reagan.
In the 2016 election, Donald Trump and his running mate, Mike Pence, who identifies as an evangelical Catholic, received 52% of Catholic votes, while their Democratic opponents, Hillary Clinton and Tim Kaine, received 45%. A 2020 survey by the Pew Research Center revealed that 59% of White Catholic registered voters intended to vote for Trump, or lean towards voting for him.
The political leanings of non-Hispanic white Catholics differ significantly from those of Hispanic Catholics. While the former tend to vote Republican, the latter largely vote for Democratic candidates. For instance, in the 2016 election, 64% of White Catholics voted for Trump, compared to 78% of Hispanic Catholics who voted for Clinton. Similarly, in the 2020 election, 65% of Hispanic Catholic registered voters said they would vote for Biden, while 61% of Catholic voters who attended services regularly identified as Republicans or leaned towards the Republican Party.
The Catholic Church hierarchy does not dictate who Catholics vote for, but it does exert substantial influence over the faithful in their dioceses. This influence is not limited to non-Hispanic white Catholics but also extends to other Catholic groups. For instance, in 2004, four bishops planned to deny communion to Catholic politicians who had voted for John Kerry. In 2016, Bishop Thomas J. Olmsted of the Diocese of Phoenix suggested that politicians supporting abortion needed to repent and go to confession before receiving Holy Communion.
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Catholic voters have swung between parties
In the 2016 US presidential election, 52% of Catholics voted for Donald Trump, while 44% voted for Hillary Clinton, according to a Pew Research Center survey. This shows a shift towards the Republican Party, with Catholic voters having previously supported Barack Obama over John McCain in 2008 by a substantial nine-point margin of 54% to 45%.
The voting behaviour of Catholics in the US has swung between the Republican and Democratic candidates in recent presidential elections. This is reflected in the 2000 and 2012 elections, where the Catholic vote was almost evenly split. In 2004, Catholics narrowly supported Republican George W. Bush over Democrat John Kerry.
Since the 1970s, non-Hispanic white Catholics have voted for the Republican Party very reliably, while a majority of Hispanic or Latino Catholics have voted Democrat. This divide was also evident in the 2016 election, with 64% of White Catholics voting for Trump and 78% of Hispanic Catholics voting for Clinton. In 2020, 59% of White Catholic registered voters said they would vote for Trump, while 65% of Hispanic Catholic registered voters chose Biden.
The Catholic vote has been influenced by the candidates' stance on issues that conflict with Catholic moral teachings, such as abortion. The addition of Ohio senator JD Vance, an unapologetic Catholic, to the Republican ticket in 2024 may have contributed to the Catholic majority endorsing Trump that year. However, the Democratic candidate Joe Biden is also Catholic, and he won the Catholic vote by 5% in 2020.
The Catholic vote continues to be a crucial factor in US elections, with candidates from both parties vying for the support of this diverse and influential voting bloc.
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Catholic voters are a crucial voting bloc
The voting behavior of Catholic blocs is influenced by various factors, including ethnicity and geographic location. White Catholics have been trending towards the Republican Party, with almost six in ten identifying with or leaning towards the Republicans. In the 2016 election, 64% of White Catholics voted for Trump, according to a Pew Research Center survey. On the other hand, Hispanic Catholics constitute a growing segment of the Catholic electorate and lean towards the Democratic Party. In the same 2016 election, 78% of Hispanic Catholics voted for Clinton.
The Catholic Church hierarchy wields substantial influence over the faithful in their dioceses, and politicians are aware of this. While the hierarchy cannot dictate who Catholics vote for, they can direct significant resources towards supporting specific issues. This dynamic has played out differently over time, with the Catholic Church taking varying approaches during different election cycles.
In recent years, Catholic voters have swung back and forth between Republican and Democratic candidates, reflecting an ongoing pattern of switching support. This unpredictability underscores the importance of the Catholic voting bloc in shaping election outcomes. While the Catholic vote was once a reliable bloc for the Democratic Party, it has become more divided in recent decades. This division is influenced by factors such as the increasing diversity of the Catholic population and the changing political landscape.
In summary, Catholic voters are a crucial voting bloc that can significantly impact election outcomes. Their voting preferences are influenced by a range of factors, and they have shown a pattern of switching support between political parties in recent elections. The Catholic vote is shaped by the intersection of religious values, ethnic identities, and political ideologies, making it a complex and dynamic force in American politics.
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Frequently asked questions
44% of Catholics voted for Hillary Clinton, according to a Pew Research Center survey. Edison exit polls put the figure at 46%.
64% of non-Hispanic white Catholics voted for Hillary Clinton in 2016.
78% of Hispanic Catholics voted for Hillary Clinton in 2016.
