Sarah Mitchell
The Catholic vote is often a closely contested vote in US presidential elections, and the 2020 election was no exception. According to Edison exit polls, 52% of Catholic voters went for Biden, and 47% for Trump, reflecting a small shift in Catholic votes towards the Democratic candidate compared to 2016. However, AP VoteCast estimates put the Catholic vote at an almost even split, with 49% of Catholics voting for Biden and 50% for Trump. In the 2024 election, Trump increased his support among Catholic voters, winning 56% of the Catholic vote to Biden's 41%, according to the Washington Post's exit poll.
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What You'll Learn
Biden's Catholicism and its impact on Catholic voters
Biden's Catholicism likely had a mixed impact on Catholic voters. While it may have attracted some Catholic voters, others may have been put off by his deviation from Catholic doctrine on certain moral issues.
In the 2020 election, Catholic voters were almost evenly split between Biden and Trump, with sources citing a range of estimates. The Edison exit polls estimated that 52% of Catholic voters went for Biden, while the AP VoteCast estimated that 49% of Catholics voted for Biden. This represented a small gain for the Democratic candidate compared to 2016, when Clinton received 46% of the Catholic vote.
Biden's Catholicism may have played a role in his improved performance among Catholic voters compared to Clinton in 2016. Michael Wear, a past faith adviser to Barack Obama, attributed Biden's success among religious voters to his campaign's focused outreach to this demographic, which included invoking his Catholicism in multiple ads. However, it is important to note that Biden's Catholicism did not result in a substantial increase in support among Catholics compared to previous Democratic candidates.
The impact of Biden's Catholicism on Catholic voters is complex and influenced by various factors. Some Catholic voters may have been drawn to Biden because of his shared faith, while others may have been turned off by his deviation from Catholic doctrine on issues such as abortion and same-sex marriage. This mixed impact is reflected in the sharp rift within the Catholic electorate in 2020, with white Catholics favoring Trump (57% according to VoteCast, and 52% according to Edison exit polls) and Hispanic Catholics largely backing Biden (67% according to VoteCast).
Looking ahead to the 2024 election, most Catholics do not want Biden to run for a second term, with only 17% of white Catholics and 28% of Hispanic Catholics in support of his potential re-election bid. This could indicate a further decline in support for Biden among Catholic voters, although it is important to note that these polls were conducted in September 2022, over a year before the election.
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Catholic voters' views on abortion
The Catholic vote in the 2020 US presidential election was split almost evenly between Joe Biden and Donald Trump. Edison exit polls estimate that 52% of Catholic voters went for Biden, and 47% for Trump. The AP VoteCast estimates put the numbers at 49% for Biden and 50% for Trump.
Biden, a lifelong Catholic, has faced opposition from Catholic voters over the years due to his deviation from Catholic doctrine on moral issues such as abortion and same-sex marriage. In the 2024 election campaign, some conservative Catholics opposed Democratic vice-presidential candidate Kamala Harris due to the party's support for abortion rights. However, some more liberal Catholics were put off by Trump's stance on immigration and social justice issues.
Political affiliation also plays a role in Catholic voters' views on abortion. A majority of Catholic Republicans say abortion should be illegal in most or all cases (60%), while most Catholic Democrats say it should be legal in most or all cases (73%). Catholic women are also more likely than Catholic men to say abortion should be legal in all or most cases (60% vs. 53%).
In terms of Catholic voters' preferences for the 2024 election, a September 2022 EWTN News/RealClear Opinion Research Poll found that 58% of Catholics felt that Biden should not run for a second term, while only 22% supported a possible re-election bid. The same poll showed that 49% of Catholics would vote for the Republican candidate in the midterms, while 45% would choose the Democrat.
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Catholic voters' views on immigration
In the 2020 US presidential election, Catholic voters were almost evenly split between Joe Biden and Donald Trump, with Biden receiving between 49% and 52% of the Catholic vote, according to Edison exit polls and AP VoteCast estimates. This represented a small gain for Biden compared to 2016, when exit polls showed that 46% of Catholics voted for Clinton.
However, in the 2024 election, Trump increased his support among Catholic voters, receiving 54% of the Catholic vote compared to 44% for Kamala Harris, according to AP VoteCast. This shift was particularly notable in several states, including North Carolina, Florida, and Texas.
When it comes to Catholic voters' views on immigration, there are a range of opinions. A 2024 survey by the Center for Applied Research in the Apostolate (CARA) found that US Catholics are divided on several aspects of immigration policy. While most adult Catholics in the US say that their faith informs their opinions on immigration to some degree, only a small percentage say it informs their views "very much". The survey showed that 43% of respondents wanted to decrease immigration levels, while 23% wanted to increase them, and 34% wanted to keep them the same.
Some conservative Catholics may oppose candidates who support abortion rights and immigration, while more liberal Catholics may be turned off by candidates who demonize migrants and disregard social justice issues. For example, in the 2024 election, some Catholic voters criticized Trump's promise of mass deportations, which they believed would harm migrant communities and the economy. On the other hand, Catholic voters have also expressed concerns about the Biden administration's policies intruding on religious liberty.
Overall, while Catholic voters' views on immigration may vary, it is clear that their votes are influenced by a range of factors, including their religious beliefs, moral values, and economic concerns.
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Catholic voters' views on Biden's performance
Catholics are a significant religious bloc in the US, making up around 22% of the electorate. In the 2020 election, Joe Biden, a Catholic himself, won 49-52% of the Catholic vote, according to exit polls. This was a slight decrease from the 54% he received in 2008 as Obama's running mate.
Biden's Catholicism likely played a role in his victory, particularly in Midwestern swing states with significant Catholic populations, such as Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. However, it is important to note that Biden's deviation from Catholic doctrine on issues such as abortion and same-sex marriage has caused division among Catholic voters. Some Catholic voters may have been drawn to Biden because of his faith, while others may have been put off by his more liberal interpretation of Catholic teachings.
In the lead-up to the 2024 election, polls showed that most Catholics did not want Biden to run for a second term. A September 2022 EWTN News/RealClear Opinion Research Poll found that 52% of Catholic voters disapproved of Biden's job performance, with only 46% approving. Inflation and the economy were ranked as the most critical issues by Catholic voters, and many expressed concern about the state of education following the COVID-19 pandemic.
Additionally, there was a notable racial divide among Catholic voters, with 62% of White Catholics saying Biden should not run for re-election, while 94% of African American Catholics supported a second bid. Hispanic Catholics, who traditionally strongly support the Democratic Party, were almost evenly split, with 45% favoring Democrats and 44% preferring Republicans.
In the 2024 election, Biden continued to lose support among White Catholics, with Trump leading him by 8 percentage points in a Pew Research Center poll conducted in September and October. However, Biden maintained strong support among Hispanic Catholics, with 67% favoring him, as well as among Jewish voters, with 70% backing the Democratic candidate.
In conclusion, while Biden's Catholicism may have played a role in his victory in 2020, particularly in Midwestern states, Catholic voters remain divided over his performance and priorities. Biden faced challenges in garnering Catholic support in the 2024 election, with a significant racial divide emerging among this religious voting bloc.
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Catholic voters' views on Trump's performance
In the 2020 election, Catholic voters were almost evenly split between Biden and Trump, with sources stating that 49-52% of Catholics voted for Biden, and 47-50% for Trump. This was a slight decrease in support for the Democratic candidate from 2016, when Clinton received 46% of the Catholic vote.
In the 2024 election, Catholic voters showed increased support for Trump, with 54% voting for him and 44-45% for Harris. This shift was particularly notable in North Carolina, Florida, and Texas. Trump's improved performance among Catholic voters may be attributed to several factors, including the Democratic Party's stance on abortion rights and immigration.
Some conservative Catholics opposed the Democratic Party's strong support for abortion rights, viewing it as a reason to vote against Harris. Additionally, Trump's appointment of conservative Supreme Court justices during his first term may have appealed to Catholics who prioritize abortion restrictions.
On the other hand, some liberal Catholics were critical of Trump's demonization of migrants and his lack of interest in social justice issues. Archbishop Thomas Wenski of Miami expressed cautious optimism about a second Trump term, acknowledging the positive impact of migrants on the US economy and hoping for accommodation on immigration issues.
While Trump's performance among Catholic voters improved overall, there were racial differences within this group. White Catholics tended to favor Trump, with 60% of this subgroup supporting him. In contrast, Latino Catholics showed stronger support for Harris, with 60% of them voting for the Democratic candidate.
In terms of specific issues, Catholic voters trusted Trump more than Harris on immigration and the economy. They also considered Harris to be more extremely liberal than Trump. However, Catholic voters were divided on abortion, with a slight majority believing that abortion should be legal in all or most cases.
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Frequently asked questions
Edison exit polls estimate that 52% of Catholic voters went for Biden, while the AP VoteCast estimates put this figure at 49%.
The Catholic vote has been split in the last few elections, with minor fluctuations from year to year. In 2004, Catholics went for Bush over Kerry (52%-47%). In 2008, Obama won the Catholic vote 54%-45%, and in 2012, Obama got 50% while Romney got 48%.
Biden has faced Catholic opposition over the years due to his deviation from Catholic doctrine on issues such as abortion and same-sex marriage. While his Catholicism may have attracted some Catholic voters, others may have been put off by his positions, which are not aligned with Church doctrine.
A 2022 EWTN News/RealClear Opinion Research Poll showed that 58% of Catholics felt Biden should not run for a second term, with only 22% supporting a possible re-election bid.
According to AP VoteCast, 54% of Catholic voters supported Trump, while 44% backed Harris.
