Rachel Evans
Catholics in the United States have historically been associated with the Democratic Party, with 75% of Irish and German Catholics voting for Democratic presidential candidates in the late 19th century. However, in recent years, there has been a shift towards the Republican Party, particularly among White Catholics. In 2018 and 2019, around half of Catholic registered voters (48%) identified as Republicans or leaned towards the Republican Party, while 47% identified with or leaned towards the Democratic Party. This shift can be attributed to various factors, including the decline of unions and suburbanization, with Catholics becoming more conservative on economic issues. The partisan divide among Catholics persists, with a majority of White Catholics identifying as Republicans and a majority of Hispanic Catholics identifying as Democrats.
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What You'll Learn
White Catholics are increasingly identifying as Republicans
White Catholics in the United States are increasingly identifying as Republicans. While Catholics have traditionally been associated with the Democratic Party, particularly on social welfare and union issues, there has been a shift in recent years. This shift has been influenced by a variety of factors, including the decline of unions and suburbanization, with many White Catholics moving to the political right.
Historically, White Catholics have had a complex relationship with political parties in the United States. In the late 19th century, Irish and German Catholics primarily voted for Democratic presidential candidates. However, with the immigration of Italians, French Canadians, and other Catholic groups, the political landscape began to change. These later immigrants often found a warmer welcome from the Republican Party, as the Irish had already established a strong presence within the Democratic Party.
In the 20th century, White Catholics tended to vote Democratic, particularly during the administrations of Franklin D. Roosevelt and Lyndon B. Johnson. However, they began to drift away from the party in the 1970s, with a significant shift occurring in 1972 when many Catholics voted for Republican candidate Richard Nixon. While Catholics supported Democratic candidate Barack Obama in 2008, by 2018, polls showed that White Catholic registered voters were almost evenly split between the two parties, with a slight majority (57%) identifying with or leaning toward the Republican Party.
The partisan divide among White Catholics presents a challenge for the Catholic Church, as preachers strive to navigate political differences within their congregations. While the Democratic Party has traditionally been associated with social welfare and union issues, White Catholics have increasingly embraced conservative positions on economic issues such as taxes. Additionally, abortion has emerged as a divisive issue, with many White Catholics opposing abortion rights and aligning themselves with Republican policies on this matter.
In summary, White Catholics in the United States are increasingly identifying as Republicans, reflecting a shift in political affiliations and a move away from the traditional association with the Democratic Party. This shift has been influenced by various social, economic, and cultural factors, and it presents both challenges and opportunities for the Catholic Church in navigating the diverse political views of its congregation.
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Hispanic Catholics tend to vote Democrat
While there is no single "Catholic vote" in the United States, with Catholics being split between the two major parties, Hispanic Catholics tend to vote for the Democratic Party. This is a pattern that has remained fairly stable over the past decade. In 2008, Catholics chose Democrat Barack Obama over Republican John McCain by a margin of 54% to 45%. In the 2016 election, 78% of Hispanic Catholics voted for Clinton, while 64% of White Catholics voted for Trump. In the 2020 election, 65% of Hispanic Catholic registered voters said they would vote for Biden, while 59% of White Catholic registered voters said they would vote for Trump.
Hispanic Catholics' preference for the Democratic Party can be attributed to their perception that the party represents their interests better than the Republican Party. According to a Pew Research Center survey, 60% of Latino adults believe that the Democratic Party represents the interests of people like them, while only about a third (34%) say the same for the Republican Party. This perception is even more pronounced among Latino Catholics, with two-thirds (67%) saying the Democratic Party represents their interests, compared to only 32% for the Republican Party.
Hispanic Catholics' support for the Democratic Party may also be influenced by specific policy issues. For example, on the issue of abortion, there is a significant divide between Catholic Democrats and Catholic Republicans. A 2019 survey found that 77% of Democratic and Democratic-leaning Catholic adults believe that abortion should be legal in all or most cases, while 63% of Republican and Republican-leaning Catholics say it should be illegal. Additionally, on the issue of immigration, Catholic Democrats strongly oppose expanding the wall along the US-Mexico border, with 91% against it compared to 81% of Catholic Republicans who favor it.
It is worth noting that the Democratic Party has a history of courting Catholic voters. Every US presidential election since 2004 has featured a Catholic candidate on one of the major party tickets. If Joe Biden wins the 2024 election, he will be only the second Catholic president in US history.
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Partisanship is strongly linked to religious affiliation
In the United States, partisanship remains strongly linked to registered voters' religious affiliations. This is particularly evident when examining the voting behaviours of Catholics, who make up 21.4% of the country's population. While Catholics have historically been associated with the Democratic Party, with 75% of Irish and German Catholics voting for Democratic presidential candidates in the late 19th century, the religious group has become increasingly divided in their political affiliations in recent years.
In the 2008 US presidential election, Catholics chose Democratic candidate Barack Obama over Republican John McCain by a margin of 54% to 45%. However, in the 2012 election, Catholic votes were almost evenly split between Obama and his Republican opponent, Mitt Romney. This division persisted in the 2020 election, with Catholic voters once again dividing their votes nearly equally between the two major parties.
The political leanings of Catholics in the US vary depending on their ethnic background. White Catholics, who make up 12.6% of the US population, tend to identify with or lean toward the Republican Party. In 2020, 57% of White Catholic registered voters identified with or leaned toward the GOP, marking a shift from 2008 when 41% supported the Republican Party. On the other hand, Hispanic Catholics, who account for 8.6% of the US population, largely identify as Democrats or lean Democratic. In 2020, 68% of Hispanic Catholic voters aligned with the Democratic Party, a share that has remained stable over the past decade.
The Catholic partisan divide presents both challenges and opportunities for the Church. Catholic preachers must navigate their congregations' diverse political views, often choosing to avoid politics in their sermons to prevent alienating their parishioners. At the same time, the Church has the chance to model proper civic behaviour and encourage Catholics to engage in political participation.
While Catholics in the US are divided between the two major parties, they also include a significant number of swing voters, who can play a crucial role in determining election outcomes. Additionally, Catholics have shown a willingness to cooperate politically with other religious groups, such as German Lutherans, on specific issues like protecting parochial schools.
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Catholics have drifted away from liberalism
Catholicism has historically been associated with the Democratic Party in the United States. In the late 19th century, 75% of Irish and German Catholics voted for Democratic presidential candidates. The Irish, in particular, controlled the Democratic Party machinery in major cities, and this continued into the early 20th century.
However, in recent decades, there has been a shift, and Catholics have drifted away from liberalism and the Democratic Party. This can be attributed to various factors, including the decline of unions and big-city machines, increased suburbanization, and upward mobility into the middle classes. Economic issues, such as taxes, have driven some Catholics towards conservatism.
Today, Catholics in the United States are politically divided, with nearly equal shares supporting each party. According to polls, 48% of Catholic registered voters describe themselves as Republicans or lean Republican, while 47% identify with or lean toward the Democratic Party. There are also differences within the Catholic population, with most Hispanic Catholic voters (68%) identifying as Democrats or leaning Democratic, while most White Catholic registered voters (57%) identify with or lean toward the Republican Party.
The partisan divide among Catholics presents a challenge for Catholic preachers, who must navigate political differences within their congregations. As a result, Catholic preachers often avoid politics in their sermons. Despite the divide, the large number of Catholics in the United States, many of whom live in battleground states, means that Catholics remain an important voting bloc in elections.
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Catholic voters are often swing voters
Catholics in the United States have historically been an important voting bloc, making up around a third of the country's population, including ex-Catholics. While there is no single "Catholic vote," with Catholics voting for both Democrats and Republicans, some Catholic voters are swing voters who can determine the outcome of an election.
In the 2024 election, Catholics were politically divided, with a majority of white Catholics identifying as Republicans and a majority of Hispanic Catholics identifying as Democrats. This divide presents a challenge for Catholic preachers, who must navigate political differences within their congregations. The partisan divide among Catholics reflects a broader trend of religious groups becoming more politically polarized.
Historically, Catholics have shown a preference for Democratic candidates, particularly in the early-to-mid-20th century. This was influenced by the dominance of Irish Catholics in urban Democratic machines and the attraction of policies such as FDR's New Deal and Harry Truman's Fair Deal. However, Catholics have also been courted by Republicans, especially in the 1950s with Eisenhower and later with Ronald Reagan.
In recent years, there has been a shift among Catholic voters, with an increasing number identifying with or leaning toward the Republican Party. This shift is more pronounced among white Catholics, with nearly six-in-ten supporting the GOP, while Hispanic Catholics have largely maintained their support for the Democrats. The political views of Catholic voters are influenced by a range of factors, including their racial and ethnic backgrounds, as well as their religious beliefs and values.
While Catholic voters have been split between the two major parties in recent elections, their votes can still be pivotal in battleground states. Candidates and parties seeking to appeal to Catholic voters must navigate a diverse range of perspectives and priorities within this voting bloc.
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Frequently asked questions
The percentage of Catholics identifying as Democrats varies depending on ethnicity. While 68% of Hispanic Catholics identify as Democrats, only 41% of White Catholics do the same. Overall, 44% of Catholics identify as Democrats.
Yes, Catholics voted solidly Democratic in presidential elections from 1928 to 1968, with a majority voting for the Republican candidate, Richard Nixon, in 1972. In the following few decades, they tended to vote Democratic but were not as reliable. In 2012, Catholics divided their votes almost exactly in half. In 2024, Catholics were again politically divided.
Beginning with the decline of unions and big-city machines, increased suburbanization, and upward mobility into the middle classes, Catholics have drifted away from the liberalism of the Democratic Party and toward conservatism on economic issues. However, Catholic preachers avoid politics in their sermons as their congregation is split politically.
