Ethan Walker
Catholics in the United States have been active in elections since the mid-19th century, and the Catholic vote has become increasingly bipartisan since the 1960s. While the Democratic Party ran the first Catholic presidential candidate in 1928, Catholics today are split down the middle politically, with nearly equal shares going to each party. In 2016, 52% of Catholics voted for Republican Donald Trump, while 44% voted for Democrat Hillary Clinton. This partisan divide among Catholics is a challenge and an opportunity for the church, as Catholic Democrats prioritize social justice and family life, while Catholic Republicans focus on aiding society's least fortunate.
| Characteristics | Values |
|---|---|
| Catholics voting in the 2024 election | Politically divided |
| Catholics voting in the 2016 election | Divided, with 52% voting for Trump and 44% for Clinton |
| Catholics voting in the 2012 election | Divided, with 48% voting for Romney and 50% for Obama |
| Catholics voting in the 2008 election | 54% voted for Obama and 45% for McCain |
| Catholics voting in the 2000 election | Divided, with 45% voting for Bush and 51% for Gore |
| Catholics voting in the 1956 election | Voted Democratic, according to Gallup |
| Catholics voting in the 1928 election | Voted Democratic |
| Catholic voting trends since the 1970s | Majority of non-Hispanic whites vote Republican; Majority of Hispanics vote Democratic |
| Catholic voting trends in the 1960s and 1970s | Shift from Democratic to Republican |
| Catholic voting trends from 1928 to 1968 | Solidly Democratic |
| Partisan identity among Catholics | Closely divided, with a modest advantage to the GOP |
| White Catholic registered voters | 57% identify with or lean toward the Republican Party |
| Hispanic Catholic voters | 60% identify as Democrats or lean Democratic |
| Black Catholic voters | Solidly Democratic |
| Mexican-American Catholics in Texas | More likely to vote Republican |
| Mexican-American Catholics in California | Solidly Democratic |
| African-American Catholics | Solidly Democratic |
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What You'll Learn
Catholics' voting behaviour: past vs present
Catholics in the United States have been active in elections since the mid-19th century. However, their voting behaviour has evolved over time, with a notable shift from predominantly Democratic to a more divided landscape in recent years.
Past Voting Behaviour
Historically, Catholics in the US tended to vote for the Democratic Party. From 1928 to 1968, they voted solidly Democratic in presidential elections, with the exception of 1956, according to Gallup. This Democratic allegiance was particularly strong during the eras of FDR and LBJ. The first Catholic presidential candidate, Al Smith, ran as a Democrat in 1928, and since the 1960s, the party has frequently nominated Catholics for president or vice president.
Present Voting Behaviour
In recent years, Catholic voting behaviour has become more evenly split between the Democratic and Republican parties. According to Pew Research Center polls in 2018 and 2019, around half of Catholic registered voters (48%) identify as Republicans or lean Republican, while roughly the same proportion (47%) identify with or lean toward the Democrats. This represents a significant shift from the past, and the partisan divide among Catholics is now a notable feature of US politics.
In the 2016 presidential election, Catholic voters demonstrated this divide, with 52% supporting Republican Donald Trump and 44% voting for Democrat Hillary Clinton. The choice of running mates also reflected this religious diversity, with Trump's running mate, Mike Pence, describing himself as evangelical Catholic, and Clinton's choice, Tim Kaine, being Catholic.
The divide among Catholics is influenced by ethnic and racial factors. White Catholics tend to identify as Republicans, while Hispanic Catholics largely vote Democratic. This was evident in 2016, when 64% of White Catholics voted for Trump, while 78% of Hispanic Catholics supported Clinton.
Factors Influencing Voting Behaviour
Catholics, like other religious groups, are influenced by their faith when voting. However, they often align more with their political party than with the teachings of their church on specific policy issues. For example, on abortion, Catholic Republicans and Democrats hold opposing views, with the former largely opposing it and the latter mostly supporting legal abortion.
The changing political landscape and the stances of both parties on various issues, such as abortion, poverty, immigration, and war, have contributed to the evolution of Catholic voting behaviour. As a result, Catholics today find themselves weighing their faith and values against the policies and candidates of both parties, leading to a more divided voting pattern.
In summary, while Catholics in the US historically voted predominantly Democratic, their voting behaviour has shifted, and they are now split between the two major parties. This evolution has significant implications for elections, with Catholics potentially playing a pivotal role as swing voters in close contests.
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Catholic voters' impact on election outcomes
Catholics have been active in US elections since the mid-19th century. While there has never been an American Catholic religious party, the Catholic vote has been an important factor in election outcomes.
Historically, Catholics voted solidly Democratic in presidential elections from 1928 to 1968, with the exception of 1956 when they voted Republican, according to Gallup. However, since the 1960s, the Catholic vote has become bipartisan, with a growing number of Catholics abandoning their traditional affiliation with the Democratic Party and shifting towards the Republican Party.
In recent years, the Catholic vote has been closely divided between the two major parties. According to Pew Research Center polls in 2018 and 2019, around half of Catholic registered voters (48%) identify as Republicans or lean Republican, while roughly the same proportion (47%) identify with or lean toward the Democratic Party. This partisan divide among Catholics persists in the 2024 election, with Catholics split in their voting preferences.
The Catholic vote can have a significant impact on election outcomes, particularly in swing states or close elections. For example, in 2016, 52% of Catholics backed Republican Donald Trump, while 44% voted for Democrat Hillary Clinton. The choice of a running mate can also influence Catholic voters, as seen in 2016 when Trump chose Mike Pence, an evangelical Catholic, which may have influenced Catholic voters.
Additionally, there are differences within the Catholic community, with White Catholics more likely to identify as Republicans and Hispanic Catholics predominantly voting Democratic. Religious attendance also plays a role, as voters who regularly attend religious services tend to lean more Republican.
While Catholics are split between the two parties, their voting decisions are often influenced by their religious beliefs and values. Both Catholic Democrats and Republicans seek to align their political choices with their faith, even as they navigate the complexities of modern politics and the contradictions with their religious teachings.
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Catholic voters' political leanings by ethnicity
US Catholics are split down the middle politically, with roughly half identifying as or leaning towards the Republican Party, and the other half identifying as or leaning towards the Democratic Party. However, when we look at Catholic voters by ethnicity, a different picture emerges.
White Catholics
Nearly six in ten White Catholic registered voters identify with or lean towards the Republican Party, marking a big shift since 2008, when four in ten supported the GOP. In 2016, 64% of White Catholics voted for Donald Trump, while 59% said they would vote for Trump or lean that way if the 2024 election were held today.
Hispanic Catholics
A majority of Hispanic Catholics are Democrats. In 2016, 78% of Hispanic Catholics voted for Clinton, and in 2024, 65% said they would vote for Biden. However, the share of Hispanic Catholic voters who identify as Democrats or lean Democratic has declined over the past 15 years.
African American Catholics
African American Catholics are solidly Democratic, and they tend to be treated by both parties as part of the larger African American vote.
Mexican American Catholics
Mexican Americans in George W. Bush's Texas are more willing to vote Republican than Mexican Americans in California, who have become a solid Democratic bloc.
While the above shows that Catholic voters tend to lean towards one party or the other depending on their ethnicity, it is important to note that Catholic voters are not a monolithic bloc, and they have a diverse range of political opinions, even on topics the Catholic Church has taken a clear stance on.
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Partisan competition and the Catholic vote
Catholics in the US have been active in the country's elections since the mid-19th century. While they voted solidly Democratic in presidential elections from 1928 to 1968, the Catholic vote has become bipartisan since the 1960s, with a number of Catholics abandoning their traditional affiliation with the Democratic Party to support the Republicans.
In recent presidential elections, Catholic voters have swung back and forth between the Republican and Democratic candidates. In 2008, Catholics chose Barack Obama over John McCain by a margin of 54% to 45%, and divided their votes almost exactly in half in 2012 and 2000. In 2016, 52% of Catholics backed Donald Trump while 44% voted for Hillary Clinton.
The partisan divide among Catholics is a challenge and an opportunity for the church. While a majority of white Catholics identify as Republicans, a majority of Hispanic Catholics are Democrats. This is in contrast to white evangelical Christians, who are predominantly Republican, and Black Protestants and Jewish voters, who are predominantly Democratic.
The partisan competition makes the Catholic vote interesting, with Catholic Democrats prioritizing social justice and the health of family life, and Catholic Republicans emphasizing the importance of acting on behalf of society's least fortunate. Ultimately, Catholics are often more aligned with their political party than with the teachings of their church, as seen in the differing views on abortion among Democratic and Republican Catholic adults.
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Abortion policies and Catholic voters
The Catholic vote in the US has been described as "evenly split" between the two major parties, with a slight majority of Catholics identifying as Republican. In the 2016 presidential election, 52% of Catholics voted for Republican Donald Trump, while 44% voted for Democrat Hillary Clinton.
Abortion is a highly salient issue for Catholic voters, with the Catholic Church in the United States being one of the foremost opponents of legal abortion. The Church teaches that human life is sacred "from conception to natural death" and that unborn children have a "right to life". Opposition to legalized abortion is considered the Church's "preeminent" issue. However, Catholic voters' views on abortion are nuanced and varied. While regular Mass attenders are among the strongest opponents of legal abortion, most Catholics fall somewhere in the middle, believing that abortion should be illegal in some cases but legal in others.
A 2019 survey found that 77% of Democratic and Democratic-leaning Catholic adults said they thought abortion should be legal in all or most cases, while 63% of Republican and Republican-leaning Catholics said abortion should be illegal in all or most cases. These views are largely consistent with those of their respective parties.
The partisan divide among Catholics presents an opportunity for the Church to engage with and influence Catholic voters on both sides of the political spectrum. While Catholic Democrats prioritize social justice and the health of family life, Catholic Republicans emphasize acting on behalf of society's least fortunate.
It is worth noting that the Catholic vote is not monolithic, and there are significant differences between various Catholic subgroups. For example, White Catholics are more likely to identify as Republicans, while Hispanic Catholics tend to be Democrats. Additionally, women are less likely than men to identify as pro-life and are more likely to support legal abortion in all or most cases.
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Frequently asked questions
Catholics are split down the middle politically, with roughly half identifying as or leaning towards each party.
From 1928 to 1968, Catholics voted solidly Democratic in presidential elections. Since the 1960s, the Catholic vote has become bipartisan. In the 60s and early 70s, many Catholics abandoned their affiliation with the Democratic Party and began to support the Republican Party.
Yes, white Catholics are more likely to vote Republican, while Hispanic Catholics tend to vote Democrat.
The Catholic Church does not dictate who Catholics vote for, but it does have a substantial influence over the faithful in their dioceses. Catholic preachers tend to avoid politics in their sermons.
