Catholic Voting Trends: The Numbers Behind The Ballot

how do catholic vote by number

Catholics make up a large and important political constituency in the United States, and their voting patterns have evolved over time. Before the 1960s, Catholics were staunch Democrats, but since then, their votes have become bipartisan. In recent years, white Catholics have increasingly leaned towards the Republican Party, while Hispanic Catholics tend to identify with the Democratic Party. Abortion is considered the primary issue that Catholic voters should be concerned with, and they are encouraged to vote with the common good in mind, prioritizing the needs of the weakest and most defenseless. While Catholics are expected to participate in the democratic process, they may face the dilemma of choosing between candidates with good policies and those with strong moral character.

Characteristics Values
Catholic voting in the US since the 1960s Bipartisan
Catholic voting in the US before the 1960s Democrats
Catholic voting in the 1968 election 33% voted for Nixon
Catholic voting in the 1972 election 52% voted for Nixon
Catholic voting in the 1988 election Did not support the Democratic candidate
Catholic voting in the 1992 election 1/3 voted for Bush's reelection, most others voted for independent Ross Perot
Catholic voting in the 2000 election Split
Catholic voting in the 2004 election Narrowly chose George Bush over John Kerry
Catholic voting in the 2008 election Supported Barack Obama over John McCain (54% to 45%)
Catholic voting in the 2012 election Split
Catholic voting in the 2016 election 52% supported Trump, 44% supported Clinton
Catholic voting in the 2020 election 2/3 of white Catholics voted for Trump over Clinton; 2/3 of Hispanic Catholics voted for Biden
Priority issue for Catholic voters Abortion

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Catholics are a key swing group

Catholics are often identified as a major "swing" voting group in American politics. In recent presidential elections, Catholics have made up roughly a quarter of the electorate, and they have been closely divided between the two parties. This was not always the case, however. Before the 1960s, when cultural changes led to an incremental liberalization of the Democratic Party, Catholics were staunch Democrats. The Democratic Party ran Al Smith, the first Catholic presidential candidate by a major party, in 1928, and, except when the ticket was headed by a Southern candidate, has nominated a Catholic for president or vice president in every election since 1960 except for 1988.

Since the 1960s, the Catholic vote has become bipartisan. In the 1960s and early 1970s, a number of Catholics and Southern whites abandoned their traditional affiliation with the Democratic Party and began to support the Republican Party. This shift is evidenced by the fact that Nixon received 33% of the Catholic vote in the 1968 election compared to 52% in 1972.

In more recent elections, white Catholics who identify as politically conservative have consistently voted for Republican candidates, while white Catholics who identify as politically liberal have consistently voted for Democrats, as have Hispanic Catholics and other Catholic minorities. The only subgroup of Catholics that has been divided in recent elections is white Catholics who identify as moderates. White Catholic moderates were closely divided in both 2000 and 2004 before swinging strongly in the Democratic direction in 2008.

In 2024, Catholics in Pennsylvania were again identified as a key swing group, with the state's 19 electoral votes hotly contested between Joe Biden and Donald Trump. In 2020, Biden won the state by only 81,660 votes, and Trump won it by less than a percentage point in 2016. The outcome of the 2024 race could come down to a few swing counties where Biden narrowly edged Trump in 2020, as well as the Catholic vote.

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Historically, Catholics played a minor role in early American politics due to their small numbers. However, their influence grew significantly following mass immigration from Catholic countries in the 19th century, particularly from Ireland, Germany, and later Italy and Poland. From the mid-19th century until the 1960s, Catholics were predominantly aligned with the Democratic Party, sometimes at the 80-90% level. During this period, they formed a core part of the New Deal Coalition, advocating for liberal domestic policies and anti-communism during the Cold War.

Beginning in the 1960s, Catholic voting patterns started to shift, with a growing number of Catholics abandoning their traditional affiliation with the Democrats and moving towards the Republican Party. This shift is exemplified by the 1968 and 1972 elections, where Nixon received 33% and 52% of the Catholic vote, respectively. Since then, the Catholic vote has become more bipartisan, with Catholics representing a significant swing group in American elections.

In recent decades, the Catholic vote has become less distinct from the general electorate, with their voting preferences mirroring those of the overall population. In the 2016 presidential election, most Catholic voters supported Donald Trump, while in 2020, a majority of Catholics voted for Joe Biden. Looking ahead to the 2024 election, polls suggest that Catholic voters may once again be closely divided, with conflicting data showing support for both Trump and Kamala Harris among this constituency.

It is worth noting that Catholic voting trends vary across different demographic groups. For example, White non-Hispanic Catholics have tended to lean more Republican, while Hispanic Catholic voters have traditionally favored the Democratic Party, although this support has been declining in recent years. Additionally, the frequency of religious service attendance appears to be a factor, with more frequent Catholic churchgoers being more likely to identify as Republicans or lean towards the Republican Party.

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Catholic voting priorities

Voting is considered one of the most important responsibilities of Catholics as citizens. The Church does not tell its followers who to vote for, but it does provide guidance on how to make voting decisions.

Catholics are taught to form their consciences in the light of Catholic teaching. This means studying Scripture and church teaching, and using reason to study key issues in light of this teaching. Prayer is also important in seeking to understand the will of God.

The Church affirms that defending human life is a pre-eminent issue and a bedrock principle for promoting the common good. This includes opposition to abortion, physician-assisted suicide, human cloning, and destructive research on human embryos. The Church also condemns genocide, torture, the targeting of non-combatants in acts of terror or war, racism, excessive consumption of material goods, unjust discrimination, and the narrowing redefinition of religious freedom.

Catholics are encouraged to vote with the mind of Christ and to allow the truths of their faith to inform their voting decisions. This includes considering the inherent dignity of all human persons, created in the image and likeness of God, and prioritizing policies that support those who struggle to make ends meet, preserve the social safety net, and promote affordable housing, childcare, and decent jobs.

Historically, Catholics in the United States were staunch Democrats, but since the 1960s, the Catholic vote has become bipartisan, with a notable shift towards the Republican Party in the 1972 election.

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Catholic voting demographics

Catholics constitute about one-fifth of the US population, and their voting demographics have changed over time. Before the 1960s, when the Democratic Party began to liberalize, Catholics were staunch Democrats. Since then, Catholic voting behaviour has become bipartisan, with Catholics representing one of the nation's largest swing groups.

During the Third Party System, from the 1850s to the 1890s, religious lines were sharply drawn in the North, with liturgical groups, including Catholics, favouring the Democratic Party. In the South, Catholics and Protestants voted similarly, with race as the primary dividing line. The mass immigration of Catholics from Europe, particularly Ireland and Germany, in the mid-19th century, significantly altered Catholic influence in American elections and culture. By the late 19th century, 75% of Irish and German Catholics in America voted for Democratic presidential candidates.

In the 1968 election, Republican candidate Richard Nixon received 33% of the Catholic vote, a number that rose to 52% in 1972. In 2004, Catholics narrowly supported Republican George W. Bush over Democrat John Kerry. In 2008, Catholics chose Democrat Barack Obama, and in 2012, their votes were almost evenly split between Obama and his Republican opponent, Mitt Romney. In 2016, Catholics backed Donald Trump, with 52% voting for the Republican candidate and 44% for Democrat Hillary Clinton.

According to Pew Research Center polls from 2018 and 2019, US Catholics remain divided, with 48% describing themselves as Republicans or leaning Republican, and 47% identifying with or favouring the Democratic Party. White Catholic voters tend to lean Republican, with 57% identifying as or leaning Republican, whereas most Hispanic Catholic voters (68%) identify as Democrats or lean Democratic.

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Catholic political affiliation

Catholics have played a significant role in American politics for many years. In fact, Catholics constitute the largest single religious institution in the United States, with around 51 million Catholic adults.

Historically, Catholics were staunch Democrats. The Democratic Party ran Al Smith, the first Catholic presidential candidate by a major party, in 1928. However, since the 1960s, the Catholic vote has become bipartisan, with Catholics now evenly split between the two major parties. This shift began in the 1960s and 1970s, when a number of Catholics and Southern whites abandoned their traditional affiliation with the Democratic Party and began to support the Republican Party. This shift is evidenced by Nixon's share of the Catholic vote, which increased from 33% in 1968 to 52% in 1972.

In recent years, the Catholic vote has continued to be divided between the two major parties. In the 2018 elections for the U.S. House of Representatives, nearly identical shares of Catholics voted for Democrats (50%) and Republicans (49%). White Catholics are more likely to vote Republican, while Hispanic Catholics overwhelmingly back Democrats.

Catholics hold a range of views on various political issues, and there are often differences between Catholic Democrats and Catholic Republicans. For example, on the issue of abortion, which the Catholic Church opposes, 55% of Catholic Republicans say it should be illegal in all or most cases, while 64% of Catholic Democrats say it should be legal. On the issue of government aid to the poor, two-thirds of Catholic Democrats believe it does more good than harm, while most Catholic Republicans (67%) say it does more harm than good. Similarly, Catholic Democrats are much more likely than Catholic Republicans to support immigration and oppose expanding the wall along the U.S.-Mexico border. There are also differences of opinion between the two groups on issues such as homosexuality and same-sex marriage, with majorities in both groups expressing opinions that are arguably in opposition to church teachings.

Frequently asked questions

No. The Church does not endorse any candidates or political parties. Catholics are expected to use their own judgment and conscience, applying the teachings of Jesus Christ and core faith values.

Abortion is considered the primary issue for Catholics, according to the USCCB's guidebook for Catholic voters. Other issues may include helping the poor and those in need, reflecting the "common good" that Catholics are called to work towards.

Catholics are taught to form their consciences in the light of Catholic teachings. This means understanding that conscience is the voice of God, revealing truth and guiding one towards good actions and away from evil.

Catholics are encouraged to participate in the democratic process and make a judgment based on the available options. If they vote for a candidate with contrary positions, they should make their opposition heard through letters, forums, or local political activities.

Yes. Before the 1960s, Catholics predominantly supported the Democratic Party. Since then, Catholic voting has become bipartisan, with a notable shift towards the Republican Party, especially among White Catholics. In recent years, Hispanic Catholics have tended to lean towards the Democratic Party.

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