Rachel Evans
Catholics have been a key voting constituency in the United States since the 1960 election of the nation's first Catholic president, John F. Kennedy. Since then, Catholic voters have been split between the two major parties, with a slight preference for the Democrats. In recent years, however, Catholic voters have become more evenly divided, with a slight preference for the Republicans. In 2016, 52% of Catholics backed Republican Donald Trump, while 44% voted for Democrat Hillary Clinton. In 2020, more Catholics voted for Joe Biden, who is Catholic himself, than Trump. In 2024, surveys and analysts indicate that Catholic voters will again be closely divided at the polls.
| Characteristics | Values |
|---|---|
| Percentage of Catholic voters in the national electorate | 25-27% |
| Percentage of Catholics for whom faith is "somewhat" to "very important" | 85% |
| Percentage of Catholics who want a president who lives a moral and ethical life | 62% |
| Percentage of Catholics who want a president who shares their religious beliefs | 14% |
| Percentage of Catholics who believe churches should keep out of politics | 62% |
| Percentage of Catholics who believe churches should not endorse candidates | 76% |
| Percentage of Catholic voters who identify as Republicans | 48-50% |
| Percentage of Catholic voters who identify as Democrats | 47-50% |
| Percentage of Catholics who voted for Donald Trump in 2016 | 52% |
| Percentage of Catholics who voted for Joe Biden in 2020 | >52% |
| Percentage of White Catholics who voted for Trump in 2016 | 64% |
| Percentage of Hispanic Catholics who voted for Trump in 2016 | 22% |
| Percentage of White Catholic voters who would vote for Trump today | 59% |
| Percentage of Hispanic Catholic voters who would vote for Biden today | 65% |
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What You'll Learn
- Catholic voters are a key constituency, comprising 25-27% of the national electorate
- Since the 1960s, the Catholic vote has become bipartisan
- Catholics' political views are often more aligned with their party than church teachings
- Catholics' views of Trump are divided by race and ethnicity
- Catholics want a president who lives a moral and ethical life, but don't need shared religious beliefs
Catholic voters are a key constituency, comprising 25-27% of the national electorate
Catholic voters are a key constituency in US elections, making up around a quarter of the national electorate. Since the 1960s, the Catholic vote has been bipartisan, with Catholics representing one of the nation's largest swing groups. This means that both parties try to appeal to Catholic voters.
Historically, Catholics were solidly Democratic, with an 80-90% affiliation rate from the mid-19th century to 1964. This began to change in the 1960s and 1970s, when a number of Catholics abandoned the Democratic Party and started supporting the Republican Party. For example, Nixon received 33% of the Catholic vote in the 1968 election, which increased to 52% in 1972.
In recent years, the Catholic vote has continued to be split between the two major parties. In 2016, 52% of Catholics backed Republican Donald Trump, while 44% voted for Democrat Hillary Clinton. However, in 2020, more Catholics voted for Joe Biden, showing the variability of Catholic voters in presidential elections.
The Catholic vote is also influenced by racial and ethnic factors. White Catholics have generally supported Republican candidates, while Hispanic Catholics have tended to favor Democratic candidates. For example, in the 2016 election, 64% of White Catholics voted for Trump, while 78% of Hispanic Catholics voted for Clinton. The Hispanic Catholic population is growing, and they are increasingly influencing the nation's political landscape.
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Since the 1960s, the Catholic vote has become bipartisan
Since the 1960s, the Catholic vote in the United States has become bipartisan, with Catholics representing a quarter of the nation's electorate and acting as one of the nation's largest swing groups. From the mid-19th century until 1964, Catholics were solidly Democratic, with an 80-90% affiliation rate. However, in the 1960s and 1970s, a significant number of Catholics abandoned their traditional affiliation with the Democratic Party and began supporting the Republican Party. This shift is evident in Nixon's increased share of the Catholic vote from 33% in 1968 to 52% in 1972.
The Catholic vote has continued to be divided between the two major parties in national elections since then. In 1980, Ronald Reagan won about half of the Catholic vote, with "Reagan Democrats", comprising non-Hispanic white, blue-collar Catholics, forming an important part of his support. In 1984, Reagan again won a majority of the Catholic vote, despite Geraldine Ferraro, a Catholic, being the Democratic vice-presidential nominee.
In more recent elections, the Catholic vote has continued to be split. In 2004, Catholics narrowly backed Republican George W. Bush, while in 2008, they chose Democrat Barack Obama. In 2016, Catholic voters supported Donald Trump, but in 2020, more Catholics voted for Joe Biden. This mirrors the broader trend of religious groups' voting patterns becoming less distinct from the general population.
Catholics' voting preferences are influenced by various factors, including their racial and ethnic backgrounds. For example, in the 2016 election, 64% of White Catholics voted for Trump, while 78% of Hispanic Catholics voted for Clinton. Additionally, Catholics prioritize having a president who lives a moral and ethical life over sharing their religious beliefs. They generally prefer that churches and religious organizations stay out of politics and do not endorse political candidates.
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Catholics' political views are often more aligned with their party than church teachings
Catholics have historically been a key voting constituency in US presidential elections, comprising around a quarter of the nation's electorate. However, their voting behaviour has become less predictable and more bipartisan since the 1960s, with Catholics increasingly splitting their votes between the two major parties. This evolution has made Catholic voters a highly sought-after swing group for both Democrats and Republicans.
In the 19th and early 20th centuries, Catholics in the US were solidly Democratic, with an overlap in memberships between the Church and labour unions, big-city machines, and the working class. This alignment promoted liberal domestic policies and anti-communist Cold War stances. However, starting in the 1960s, a notable shift occurred, with many Catholics and Southern whites moving away from the Democratic Party and towards the Republican Party. This shift is exemplified by Nixon's increased share of the Catholic vote in the 1968 and 1972 elections.
Despite this shift, Catholics have not consistently voted as a bloc for either party in recent decades. For instance, in the 2008 election, Catholics chose Democrat Barack Obama, while in 2004, they narrowly backed Republican George W. Bush. In 2016, Catholics supported Republican Donald Trump, but in 2020, more Catholics voted for Democrat Joe Biden. These voting patterns suggest that Catholics' political views are often influenced by factors beyond the teachings of the Catholic Church, reflecting the broader ideological divisions within the American electorate.
The racial and ethnic composition of the Catholic population also plays a role in their voting behaviour. White Catholics have tended to support Republican candidates, with 54% approving of Trump's performance as president amid the COVID-19 pandemic. In contrast, Hispanic Catholics, who comprise a growing segment of the Catholic population, have increasingly supported Democratic candidates, with 69% disapproving of Trump's handling of the pandemic. This divergence highlights the diverse perspectives within the Catholic community and underscores how Catholics' political views are shaped by a complex interplay of factors, including their racial and ethnic identities.
While the Catholic Church in the US has taken positions on moral and social issues, such as abortion, Catholics generally prefer that churches stay out of politics. A majority of Catholics believe that churches should not endorse political candidates. This sentiment further underscores how Catholics' political views are shaped by a range of factors beyond the teachings of the Church, reflecting their diverse perspectives and priorities as a significant voting bloc in American politics.
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Catholics' views of Trump are divided by race and ethnicity
Among white Catholics, 57% backed Trump and 42% backed Biden, according to VoteCast. This is a slight decrease in support for Trump compared to 2016, when he won 64% of white Catholics. On the other hand, among Hispanic Catholics, VoteCast shows that 67% backed Biden and only 32% backed Trump. A similar pattern can be seen among Black Catholics, with majorities disapproving of Trump's actions and a large majority saying that the ethical standards of his top officials are only fair or poor.
The divide among Catholics in the 2020 election was not just between racial and ethnic lines but also between those who practice more than once a week and those who do not. In Pennsylvania, for example, Trump was up by about 40 points among practicing Catholics, while he lost among non-practicing Catholics by a significant margin of 60% to 35%. This divide was also reflected in the importance Catholics placed on issues such as immigration and abortion. A large majority of White Catholics (72%) said that immigration would be a key factor in their decision, while fewer Catholics overall (44%) said that abortion would be very important in deciding who to vote for.
The Catholic Church's leadership faces a challenge due to the racial and ethnic divide among its members, especially with the Republican Party's appeal to white voters through anti-immigrant rhetoric. The 2020 election results highlight the diverse political and ideological views held by Catholic voters, similar to the broader US electorate.
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Catholics want a president who lives a moral and ethical life, but don't need shared religious beliefs
Catholics have historically been a key voting bloc in US presidential elections, with their support often being courted by both major parties. In the 20th century, Catholics were largely aligned with the Democratic Party, sometimes at the 80–90% level. However, since the election of John F. Kennedy, the first Catholic president, in 1960, Catholics have been split relatively evenly between the two major parties.
In recent years, Catholic voters have swung back and forth between the Republican and Democratic candidates. For example, in 2016, 52% of Catholics backed Republican Donald Trump, while in 2020, more Catholics voted for Democrat Joe Biden. This shift in support is also evident in the Hispanic Catholic community, with Starr County, Texas, the most Hispanic county in the nation, voting for Trump over Biden in 2024 after voting Democratic for 132 years.
Despite their varying support for different parties and candidates, there are some consistent values that Catholics seek in a president. A 2020 survey found that around six in ten Catholics (62%) consider it very important to have a president who personally lives a moral and ethical life. This view is shared by both White and Hispanic Catholics. However, only a small percentage of Catholics (14%) say it is very important to have a president who shares their religious beliefs, with Hispanic Catholics being twice as likely as White Catholics to express this preference (22% vs. 9%).
While Catholics value a president who leads a moral and ethical life, they do not necessarily require the president to share their specific religious beliefs. This may be due to the fact that Catholics, like many other religious groups, view their faith as a personal matter that should be kept separate from politics. Indeed, a majority of Catholics believe that churches and other religious organizations should stay out of politics and not endorse political candidates.
In summary, Catholics in the United States have diverse political views and have supported different presidential candidates over the years. However, they consistently prioritize a president who embodies moral and ethical values, regardless of whether those values align exactly with their own religious beliefs. This preference for a morally upright leader may be influenced by Catholic teachings and principles, even as Catholics vary in their political affiliations and voting behaviors.
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Frequently asked questions
Catholics were split in the 2020 election, with more voting for Joe Biden than Donald Trump.
Catholic voting behaviour has grown less distinct from the general population in recent years. In the 2016 election, Catholic voters mirrored the overall population in being divided almost exactly in half between the two major parties.
From the mid-19th century to 1964, Catholics were solidly Democratic, sometimes at the 80-90% level. Since the 1960s, the Catholic vote has become bipartisan. In the 1980 election, Ronald Reagan won about half of the Catholic vote, and in 1984, he won 54 to 61% of the Catholic vote. In 2016, Donald Trump won the majority of the Catholic vote, but in 2020, Joe Biden won the majority of Catholic voters.
