Rachel Evans
Catholics in the United States are split down the middle politically, with around half describing themselves as Republicans or leaning towards the Republican Party, while roughly the same proportion identify with or lean towards the Democratic Party. This partisan divide among Catholics has been a challenge and an opportunity for the church, with a majority of white Catholics identifying as Republicans, while a majority of Hispanic Catholics are Democrats. This is reflected in the voting patterns of Catholics, who have swung back and forth between the Republican and Democratic candidates in recent presidential elections.
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What You'll Learn
From the mid-19th century to 1964, Catholics were predominantly Democrats
From the mid-19th century to 1964, Catholics in the United States were predominantly Democrats. This was largely due to the wave of Irish immigration to the United States, which began even before the Irish potato famine in 1845, introducing a critical voting bloc to large cities like New York and eventually most of the country. In the 1840s, nearly half of all immigrants in the United States were Irish, and over the next century, other large groups of Catholic immigrants, including Italians, would arrive in the United States.
The ruling class at the time was predominantly White Anglo-Saxon Protestant (WASP) and Republican, and they were seemingly unsympathetic to the concerns of the new underclass of Catholic immigrants. As a result, the Democratic Party was seen as more welcoming to these immigrants, and they gravitated towards the Democrats. This trend continued into the late 19th century, with 75% of Irish and German Catholics in America voting for Democratic presidential candidates.
The Democratic Party's association with Catholics was further strengthened by the nomination of Al Smith, a Catholic, as their presidential candidate in 1928. Although Smith was defeated, his nomination marked a significant step forward for Catholics in American politics. In 1960, the Democrats nominated another Catholic, John F. Kennedy, who won the election and became the first Catholic president of the United States.
However, it is important to note that beginning in the early 1960s, there was a shift in Catholic voting patterns. As Catholics became more suburban and affluent, they began to move away from the Democratic Party and towards the Republican Party. This shift was attributed to class factors, as Catholics who achieved higher economic status were more likely to vote Republican.
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Since 1960, Catholic votes have been split between the two major parties
Catholics represent one of the largest and most diverse religious groups in the United States, making up about a fifth of the population. Since 1960, Catholic votes have been split between the two major parties, with the Democratic Party and the Republican Party each receiving roughly half of the Catholic vote in national elections. This is a shift from the pre-1960s, when Catholics were staunchly Democratic, sometimes at the 80–90% level.
Cultural changes in the 1960s led to an incremental liberalization of the Democratic Party, and a number of Catholics began to abandon their traditional affiliation with the Democrats and move towards the Republican Party. This shift can be seen in the 1968 election, where Nixon received 33% of the Catholic vote, increasing to 52% in 1972. As a group, Catholics represented a quarter of the nation's electorate and were one of the nation's largest swing groups.
In recent years, the Catholic vote has continued to be divided between the two major parties. In the 2016 election, 52% of Catholics backed Republican Donald Trump, while 44% voted for Democrat Hillary Clinton. In 2020, the split remained relatively even between Biden and Trump. Looking ahead to the 2024 election, Catholics are again politically divided, with nearly equal shares going to each party.
The partisan divide among Catholics poses a challenge for Catholic preachers, who must navigate a congregation with diverse political views. As a result, Catholic preachers tend to avoid politics in their sermons. While there is no single "Catholic vote", the voting patterns of Catholics are influenced by a range of factors, including race, ethnicity, and frequency of religious service attendance. For example, a majority of White Catholics identify as Republicans, while a majority of Hispanic Catholics are Democrats. Additionally, among Catholic voters who attend services monthly or more, a higher percentage identify as Republicans or lean towards the Republican Party (61%) compared to less frequent attenders (47%).
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White Catholics tend to vote Republican
The Catholic vote in the United States has become increasingly bipartisan since the 1960s, with a growing number of Catholics abandoning their traditional affiliation with the Democratic Party and moving towards the Republican Party. This shift is attributed to various factors, including the influence of the Catholic Church hierarchy and the desire for a president who leads a moral and ethical life.
While White Catholics lean more towards the Republican Party, Hispanic Catholics tend to identify as Democrats or lean Democratic. This political divide among Catholics presents a challenge for Catholic preachers, who aim to avoid alienating any portion of their congregation. As a result, Catholic churches have adopted official nonpartisanship, creating a space for civic conversation and dialogue.
It is worth noting that Catholics make up a significant portion of the U.S. population, and their votes can play a crucial role in battleground states. While Catholics have diverse political opinions, their votes have often reflected the overall electorate, with a majority typically voting for the winner in presidential elections.
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Hispanic Catholics tend to vote Democrat
While Catholics in the United States have a diverse range of political opinions, Hispanic Catholics tend to vote Democrat. In the 2016 presidential election, 78% of Hispanic Catholics voted for Democrat Hillary Clinton, while 64% of White Catholics voted for Republican Donald Trump. In 2020, 65% of Hispanic Catholic registered voters said they would vote for Joe Biden, while 59% of White Catholic registered voters said they would vote for Trump or lean that way.
Hispanic Catholic voters are more likely to identify as Democrats or lean Democratic, with 60% to 68% doing so, according to various sources. This share has remained stable over the past decade, although it has declined over the past 15 years. In contrast, nearly six-in-ten White Catholic registered voters (57% to 59%) identify with or lean toward the Republican Party.
Hispanic Catholics' preference for the Democratic Party can be attributed to their perception that the party represents their interests better than the Republican Party. According to a Pew Research Center survey, 67% of Latino Catholics say the Democratic Party represents the interests of people like them well, while only 32% say the same for the Republican Party. This perception is shared by Hispanic voters more broadly, with 60% saying the Democratic Party represents their interests somewhat or very well, compared to 34% for the Republican Party.
Hispanic Catholics' political views also differ from those of White Catholics on specific policy issues. For example, on the issue of abortion, 77% of Democratic and Democratic-leaning Hispanic Catholic adults say it should be legal in all or most cases, while 63% of Republican and Republican-leaning Hispanic Catholics say it should be illegal. Additionally, 91% of Catholic Democrats oppose expanding the wall along the US-Mexico border, while only 19% of Catholic Republicans share this view.
The political leanings of Hispanic Catholics have implications for the Catholic Church in the United States, which strives to maintain nonpartisanship within its congregation. The partisan divide among Catholics presents a challenge for Catholic preachers, who must navigate political differences within their congregation.
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Catholics who attend church regularly are more likely to vote Republican
Catholics represent one of the largest and most diverse religious groups in the United States, making up about a fifth of the population. They are both Democrats and Republicans, and some are swing voters. In recent presidential elections, Catholic voters have swung back and forth between the Republican and Democratic candidates.
While partisan identity among Catholics has been closely divided, the GOP now has a modest advantage among Catholics. About half of Catholic voters identify as Republicans or lean toward the Republican Party, compared with 44% who identify as Democrats or lean Democratic. This is a shift from 2008, when four-in-ten Catholic voters identified with or leaned toward the Republican Party.
Hispanic Catholic voters are more likely to identify as Democrats or lean Democratic, with 68% associating with the Democratic Party. This is in contrast to White Catholics, who are more likely to identify as Republicans or lean Republican, with 57% associating with the GOP.
Catholics who attend religious services weekly or more are notably more likely to vote for Republican candidates. For example, among Catholic voters who attend services monthly or more often, 61% identify as Republicans or lean toward the Republican Party, compared to 47% of less frequent attenders.
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Frequently asked questions
Catholics are split down the middle politically, with around half describing themselves as Republicans or leaning towards the Republican Party, and the other half identifying with or leaning towards the Democratic Party.
From the mid-19th century to 1964, Catholics were solidly Democratic, sometimes at the 80–90% level. Since the election of the nation's first Catholic president, John F. Kennedy, in 1960, Catholics have been split about 50–50 between the two major parties in national elections.
Yes, there are differences in voting patterns among White and Hispanic Catholics. Nearly six in ten White Catholic registered voters identify with or lean toward the Republican Party, while most Hispanic Catholic voters identify as Democrats or lean Democratic.
