Joshua Bennett
In the 2012 United States presidential election, Catholics were split between Barack Obama and Mitt Romney, with Obama winning 50% of the Catholic vote to Romney's 48%. This was a closer contest than in 2008, when Obama defeated John McCain by seven points among Catholic voters (54%-45%). Romney's gains among Catholics were attributed to the support of observant white Catholics, who traditionally lean Republican. However, these gains were offset by the decline in the number of Catholics as a proportion of the electorate, as well as the growing diversity of religious affiliations in the United States.
| Characteristics | Values |
|---|---|
| Year | 2012 |
| Candidate | Mitt Romney |
| Religion | Mormon |
| Catholic vote | 48% |
| White Catholic vote | 59% |
| Hispanic Catholic vote | 75% |
| Weekly churchgoing Catholic vote | 56% |
| Comparison to 2008 | McCain received 45% of the Catholic vote |
| Comparison to 2016 | Trump received 50% of the Catholic vote |
| Comparison to 2020 | Biden received a similar percentage of the Catholic vote to Trump |
| Comparison to McCain and Bush | Romney received a similar percentage of the Catholic vote to Bush in 2004, and more than McCain in 2008 |
| Support from white evangelicals | Romney's Mormonism was a non-issue at the polls |
| Support from Jews | 30% |
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What You'll Learn
White Catholics favoured Romney
While Obama won the overall Catholic vote in 2012 by a slim margin, there was a clear divide between White Catholics and Hispanic Catholics. Three-quarters of Hispanic Catholics voted for Obama, while White Catholics swung towards Romney. This divide highlights the political differences between these two groups within the Catholic Church in the United States.
The support for Romney among White Catholics was part of a broader pattern of traditional Republican-leaning religious groups strongly backing him. White evangelical Protestants, for example, voted heavily for Romney, with 79% casting their ballots for him. Romney's Mormon faith did not appear to be a significant factor for these voters, and they supported him as enthusiastically as they had supported previous GOP candidates.
The religious composition of the 2012 electorate resembled that of recent elections, with traditionally Republican groups favouring Romney and traditionally Democratic groups, such as Hispanic Catholics, supporting Obama. The religious contours of American politics are, however, evolving. The percentage of Catholics who identify as Democrats has remained relatively stable over the last decade, while the number of Catholic Republicans has increased.
In conclusion, White Catholics favoured Romney in the 2012 election, reflecting their traditional Republican leanings and mirroring the voting patterns of other religious groups such as white evangelicals. The political preferences of White Catholics have had, and continue to have, a notable impact on the American political landscape.
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Hispanic Catholics voted for Obama
In the 2012 election, Hispanic Catholics voted for Barack Obama over Mitt Romney by a margin of 75% to 21%. This was a significant increase in support for Obama from the 2008 election, where he carried the Hispanic vote by a margin of 59% to 42%.
There were several factors that influenced Hispanic Catholics' support for Obama in 2012. One key factor was Obama's executive order halting the deportation of young undocumented immigrants, which was seen as a strong contrast to Romney's hard-line position on immigration. This issue was particularly important to Hispanic voters, who made up a significant portion of the electorate in key battleground states such as Florida, where Obama won by a slim margin.
Another factor was the perception that Obama cared about the Latino community, while Romney did not. Election eve polls from Latino Decisions found that half of Hispanic voters said Romney “does not care about Latinos”, with 18% saying he was “hostile to Latinos”. In contrast, 66% of Hispanic voters polled believed that Obama “truly cares about Latinos”.
The support for Obama among Hispanic Catholics was part of a broader trend of traditionally Democratic groups, including black Protestants, Jews, and the religiously unaffiliated, backing Obama by large margins in the 2012 election.
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Catholic voters are split between Democrats and Republicans
Catholics represent one of the largest and most diverse religious groups in the United States. In the 2012 election, Catholics were split between Obama and Romney, with 50% voting for Obama and 48% voting for Romney. This was a closer split than in 2008, when Catholics chose Obama over McCain by a margin of 54% to 45%.
In terms of religious attendance, Catholics who attend weekly services were more likely to vote for Romney (56% Romney vs 39% Obama), while those who never attend religious services were more likely to vote for Obama (62% Obama vs 35% Romney). White Catholics swung more towards the Republican side in 2012, with 59% voting for Romney compared to 52% for McCain in 2008. On the other hand, Hispanic Catholics largely supported Obama (75%), and they continue to lean Democratic, with 68% identifying as Democrats or leaning Democratic according to data from 2018-2019.
The Catholic vote has continued to be split between Democrats and Republicans in subsequent elections. In 2016, Trump won the Catholic vote over Clinton (50% vs 46%), and in 2020, the vote was relatively even between Biden and Trump. Looking ahead to the 2024 election, the percentage of Catholics who identify as Democrats (33% in 2023) has remained stable over the last decade, while the percentage of Catholic Republicans has increased from 21% to 28%.
Catholics' political views are influenced by a range of factors, including their racial and ethnic backgrounds, as well as their personal beliefs on issues such as abortion, climate change, and immigration. While the Catholic Church has clear stances on many of these issues, Catholic voters often align more with their political parties than with the teachings of their church.
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Catholic voters are influenced by abortion policies
Catholics represent one of the largest and most diverse religious groups in the United States. While Catholic voters are not bound by a single issue, abortion policies have been shown to influence their voting behaviour.
In the 2012 election, Catholics were split between Obama and Romney, with Obama winning 50% of the Catholic vote compared to Romney's 48%. This was a shift from 2008, when Catholics chose Obama over McCain by a larger margin of 54% to 45%. Romney's gains among Catholics were attributed to the campaign led by Catholic bishops against the Obama administration's healthcare mandate, which included requiring employers to provide healthcare benefits covering contraceptives.
The abortion issue continues to be a factor in Catholic voting behaviour. According to a 2019 survey, 77% of Democratic and Democratic-leaning Catholic adults believe abortion should be legal in all or most cases, while 63% of Republican and Republican-leaning Catholics say abortion should be illegal in all or most cases. This divide is further illustrated by voting preferences among Hispanic and White Catholics. White Catholics, who tend to be more politically aligned with the Republican Party, are more likely to support restrictions on abortion. In contrast, Hispanic Catholics, who largely identify as Democrats or lean Democratic, are more supportive of abortion rights.
The influence of abortion policies on Catholic voters extends beyond their political affiliations. PRRI's research found that about three in ten Catholics (31%) say they would only vote for a candidate who shares their views on abortion. This single-issue voting behaviour is more pronounced among White Catholics (31%) and Hispanic Catholics (29%) compared to Catholics of colour (39%).
While Catholic voters are influenced by abortion policies, their voting decisions are also shaped by a range of other factors, including their racial and ethnic backgrounds, as well as their views on issues such as immigration, access to guns, LGBTQ rights, and climate change.
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Romney's Mormonism was a non-issue
Some white evangelical leaders, such as Rev. Robert Jeffress, spoke out against the Mormon doctrine before the election. However, this does not appear to have influenced the voters, as Romney's religion was not a significant factor in the election outcome. The focus of the voters was on defeating Obama rather than on Romney's religious beliefs.
In the 2012 election, Romney received strong support from traditionally Republican groups, including white evangelicals and observant white Catholics. The gains in these groups were not enough to secure a victory for Romney, partly due to their decreasing share of the electorate. The religious contours of the electorate in 2012 resembled those of recent elections, with traditionally Republican groups backing Romney and traditionally Democratic groups, such as Black Protestants, Hispanic Catholics, Jews, and the religiously unaffiliated, supporting Obama.
While Romney's Mormon faith may have been a topic of discussion before the election, it did not become a significant issue during the campaign or influence the voting behaviour of evangelical Protestants. The election dynamics were shaped more by demographic changes and traditional party affiliations than by religious factors.
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Frequently asked questions
Yes, Catholics voted for Romney.
It depends on the specific Catholic group in question. White Catholics voted for Romney over Obama, while Hispanic Catholics voted for Obama over Romney. Overall, Catholics were split almost evenly in the 2012 election, with 50% voting for Obama and 48% voting for Romney.
Yes, Romney received more Catholic votes than McCain. McCain received 45% of the Catholic vote in 2008, while Romney received 48% in 2012.
Romney's Mormon faith does not appear to have significantly impacted Catholic voting. While some white evangelical leaders spoke out against Mormon doctrine, his religion was not a deal-breaker for voters, and they prioritized defeating Obama over religious differences.
Yes, Romney received strong support from traditionally Republican religious groups. White evangelicals and weekly churchgoers, including Catholics, backed Romney, while traditionally Democratic groups such as Black Protestants, Hispanic Catholics, Jews, and the religiously unaffiliated supported Obama.
