Michael Brooks
Catholics in the United States are divided politically, with nearly equal shares going to each party. White Catholics tend to identify as Republicans, while a majority of Hispanic Catholics are Democrats. This is a shift from the mid-19th century to 1964, when Catholics were predominantly Democratic, sometimes at the 80–90% level. Since the election of John F. Kennedy, the first Catholic president, Catholics have been split relatively evenly between the two major parties. In recent years, the Republican Party has made gains among White Catholic voters, with about six-in-ten associating with the GOP. However, most Hispanic Catholic voters (68%) identify as Democrats, a share that has remained stable over the past decade.
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What You'll Learn
Catholics are split between Democrats and Republicans
Catholics in the United States are divided between the Democratic and Republican parties, with around half of Catholic voters identifying as Republicans and the other half as Democrats. This is a shift from the mid-19th century to 1964, when Catholics were predominantly Democratic, sometimes at the 80–90% level. From the 1930s to the 1950s, Catholics formed a core part of the New Deal Coalition, promoting liberal domestic policies and anti-communist Cold War stances.
In recent years, the partisan divide among Catholics has become more pronounced, with a significant split along racial and ethnic lines. A majority of White Catholics identify as Republicans or lean Republican, while a majority of Hispanic Catholics identify as Democrats or lean Democratic. This divide was evident in the views of former President Trump, with 54% of White Catholics approving of his performance, compared to 69% of Hispanic Catholics who disapproved.
The Catholic partisan divide presents both challenges and opportunities for the Church. On the one hand, it can be difficult for Catholic preachers to navigate a politically split congregation. On the other hand, the mix of Democrats and Republicans within Catholic congregations creates a unique opportunity for civil dialogue and civic engagement, especially with the Church's official nonpartisanship.
Catholics have also been swing voters in some elections, making them a crucial group that can determine the outcome. For example, in the 2016 presidential election, 52% of Catholics backed Republican Donald Trump, while in 2008, 54% supported Democrat Barack Obama. This unpredictability and influence in elections highlight the significance of the Catholic vote in American politics.
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Hispanic Catholics tend to be Democrats
While Catholics in the United States are split down the middle politically, with half describing themselves as Republicans and the other half identifying with the Democratic Party, Hispanic Catholics tend to lean towards the Democrats.
In 2016, 52% of Catholics backed Republican Donald Trump, while 44% voted for Democrat Hillary Clinton. However, there was a significant divide between White and Hispanic Catholics, with 64% of White Catholics voting for Trump and 78% of Hispanic Catholics voting for Clinton. This trend continued in the 2020 election, with 59% of White Catholic registered voters saying they would vote for Trump, while 65% of Hispanic Catholic registered voters said they would vote for Biden.
Hispanic Catholics' preference for the Democratic Party is not a recent phenomenon. In the mid-19th century until 1964, Catholics were solidly Democratic, with 85% of Irish and German Catholics voting for Democratic presidential candidates in the late 19th century. The Democratic Party has also historically been more popular among Hispanic Catholics, with the majority voting for both Al Gore and John Kerry.
While there is no single "Catholic vote," with Catholics' political views varying widely, Hispanic Catholics' tendency to lean Democratic can be attributed to several factors. One reason may be the Democratic Party's stance on immigration, which is important to many Hispanic Catholics. In a 2019 survey, 91% of Catholic Democrats opposed expanding the wall along the border between the US and Mexico, while the Catholic Church and Pope Francis have also condemned Trump's plan, describing it as "not Christian." Additionally, the Democratic Party's support for progressive causes may appeal to Hispanic Catholics, who are more likely to be immigrants or first-generation Americans and may be more open to liberal policies.
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White Catholics tend to be Republicans
Today, around half of Catholic registered voters (48%) describe themselves as Republicans or lean towards the Republican Party, while 47% identify with or lean towards the Democrats. This is a notable shift from 2009, when voters in both groups were equally divided between the two parties. White Catholic registered voters, in particular, have shown a significant shift towards the Republican Party, with nearly six in ten (57%) identifying with or leaning towards the GOP. This is a big change since 2008, when only four in ten (41%) supported the Republican Party.
White Catholics who are registered Republicans are less likely to defect to the Democrats during election years. This was evident during Ronald Reagan's presidential elections and the Nixon-McGovern race, when White Catholic Democrats switched parties in large numbers. Additionally, White Catholics who attend religious services more frequently are more likely to identify as Republicans or lean Republican, with 61% of monthly or more frequent attenders identifying as such.
The political views of White Catholics tend to align more with their political party than with the teachings of their church. For example, on the issue of abortion, 63% of Republican and Republican-leaning Catholics say abortion should be illegal in all or most cases, while the Catholic Church officially opposes abortion. Similarly, on immigration, 81% of Catholic Republicans favor expanding the wall along the US-Mexico border, despite the US Conference of Catholic Bishops and Pope Francis condemning this plan.
The White Catholic vote is considered a significant voting bloc in modern American politics, and their geographic distribution and large numbers make them a highly influential group.
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Catholics' views of Trump are divided by race and ethnicity
In the 2020 election, Catholic voters were split almost evenly between Trump and his Democratic opponent, Joe Biden, with 50% of Catholics backing Trump and 49% favoring Biden. However, among White Catholics, 57% backed Trump and 42% backed Biden, while among Hispanic Catholics, 67% backed Biden and 32% backed Trump.
A poll conducted in late July and early August 2020 found that 54% of White Catholics approved of Trump's performance as president, while 69% of Hispanic Catholics disapproved. Similarly, in 2024, 51% of White Catholics approved of the job Trump was doing as president, compared to only 32% of Hispanic Catholics.
Historically, Catholics have been closely tied to the Democratic Party, with 75% of Irish and German Catholics voting for Democratic candidates in the late 19th century. From the mid-19th century to 1964, Catholics were solidly Democratic, sometimes at the 80-90% level. However, since the election of John F. Kennedy as the first Catholic president in 1960, Catholics have been split between the two major parties in national elections.
In recent years, there has been a shift among White Catholics towards the Republican Party, with nearly six-in-ten (57-61%) identifying with or leaning towards the GOP. In contrast, most Hispanic Catholic voters (61-68%) identify as Democrats or lean Democratic. This divide is also reflected in the views of Trump's actions, with majorities of Hispanic Catholics disapproving of his administration's actions on issues such as diversity, equity, and inclusion policies and federal department cuts.
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Catholics' political views are influenced by their attendance at religious services
Catholics in the United States are split down the middle politically, with around half of Catholic voters identifying as Republicans and the other half identifying as Democrats. This is a shift from the mid-19th century to 1964, when Catholics were predominantly Democrats, sometimes at the 80-90% level.
The political views of Catholics are influenced by various factors, including their attendance at religious services. Catholics who attend religious services monthly or more often are more likely to identify as Republicans or lean towards the Republican Party. Among Catholic voters who attend services frequently, 61% identify as Republicans or lean Republican, while among those who attend less frequently, 47% align with the GOP.
The race and ethnicity of Catholic voters also play a role in their political affiliation. White Catholic registered voters tend to identify with or lean toward the Republican Party, while most Hispanic Catholic voters identify as Democrats or lean Democratic. This difference is also reflected in their views of former President Trump, as 54% of White Catholics approved of his performance, while 69% of Hispanic Catholics disapproved.
Additionally, Catholics' views on the role of religion in politics may influence their political participation. While Catholics view religious organizations as forces for good in society, a majority believe that churches and other religious organizations should stay out of politics and not endorse political candidates.
The Catholic partisan divide presents an opportunity for the Church to model proper civic behavior and engage in dialogue, especially given the mix of Democrats and Republicans within congregations.
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Frequently asked questions
Catholics are split down the middle politically, with around half identifying as Republicans and the other half identifying as Democrats.
Most Hispanic Catholic voters identify as Democrats or lean Democratic.
A majority of White Catholic registered voters identify with or lean toward the Republican Party.
From the mid-19th century to 1964, Catholics were solidly Democratic, sometimes at the 80-90% level. Since the election of the nation's first Catholic president, John F. Kennedy, in 1960, Catholics have split about 50-50 between the two major parties in national elections.
Catholic Democrats tend to support progressive candidates and causes, while Catholic Republicans value tradition and community. Catholic Democrats are more inclined to oppose abortion than other liberals, and Catholic Republicans lean toward the Republicans when it comes to family and cultural values, including abortion.
