Grace Thompson
Since the 2000 United States presidential election, the terms red state and blue state have been used to refer to states that predominantly vote for Republican and Democratic candidates, respectively. While red states tend to be more rural and sparsely populated, there is no clear indication that they are more Catholic than blue states. In fact, US Catholics are politically divided, with around half identifying as Republicans and the other half as Democrats, according to Pew Research Center polls in 2018 and 2019. That said, there are nuances within this religious group, with white Catholics more likely to lean Republican and Hispanic Catholics more likely to lean Democratic.
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What You'll Learn
- Catholics voted for Democrat Barack Obama in 2008, but were more divided in 2012 and 2000
- Catholics are split between the Republican and Democratic parties
- Catholics are more aligned with their political parties than the teachings of their church
- White non-Hispanic Catholics are majority Republican
- Democrats are more likely to be unaffiliated with religion than Republicans
Catholics voted for Democrat Barack Obama in 2008, but were more divided in 2012 and 2000
In the United States, Catholics are split down the middle politically, with around half of Catholic voters identifying as Republican or leaning towards the Republican Party, and the other half identifying as Democrats or leaning towards the Democratic Party. This has not always been the case, however, and Catholic voters have swung back and forth between the two parties in recent presidential elections.
In 2008, Catholics voted for Democrat Barack Obama over Republican John McCain by a margin of 54% to 45%. This was a notable shift from the previous election in 2004, when Catholics had favoured Republican George W. Bush over Democrat John Kerry by a margin of 52% to 47%. Obama's victory in 2008 was attributed to his success in retaining and increasing Democratic support among groups that typically support Democrats, such as those who rarely attend religious services, while also making gains among groups that have recently tended to support Republicans, such as white evangelicals.
In 2012, Catholics were more divided, with Obama defeating Republican Mitt Romney by a narrow margin of 50% to 48%. Obama's support among Catholics declined in 2012, particularly among Jews and religiously unaffiliated voters, although these declines were not considered statistically significant. Obama's victory in 2012 was attributed to strong support from traditionally Democratic groups, including Hispanic Catholics, who made up 18% of the Catholic electorate that year.
In 2000, Catholics were again divided, with George W. Bush defeating Democrat Al Gore. While the exact breakdown of Catholic votes in 2000 is not provided, it is mentioned that the Catholic vote in that election resembled the overall electorate, which was almost evenly split between the two parties.
The Catholic vote in the United States is influenced by various factors, including cultural issues, policy issues, and the religiousness of the candidates. On specific policy issues, Catholics often align more with their political party than with the teachings of their church. For example, on abortion, Catholic Democrats tend to support legal access, while Catholic Republicans tend to oppose it, despite the Catholic Church's formal opposition to abortion. Similarly, on immigration, Catholic Democrats overwhelmingly oppose expanding the wall along the US-Mexico border, while Catholic Republicans largely support it.
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Catholics are split between the Republican and Democratic parties
The terms "red state" and "blue state" have been used to refer to US states whose voters predominantly vote for one party in presidential and other statewide elections since the 2000 United States presidential election. Red states vote Republican, while blue states vote Democratic.
Catholics in the United States are split between the Republican and Democratic parties. According to Pew Research Center polls from 2018 and 2019, around half of Catholic registered voters (48%) describe themselves as Republicans or say they lean toward the Republican Party, while roughly the same proportion (47%) identify with or lean toward the Democratic Party. In recent presidential elections, Catholic voters have swung back and forth between the two parties. In 2016, 52% of Catholics backed Donald Trump, while 44% voted for Hillary Clinton. In 2008, Catholics chose Barack Obama over John McCain by a margin of 54% to 45%. In 2012 and 2000, Catholic votes were almost evenly split between the two parties.
The Catholic vote does not always align with the overall electorate. For example, in 1992, about one-third of Catholics voted for Bush's reelection, but most Catholic defectors switched to independent Ross Perot rather than the successful Democrat Bill Clinton. In 1994, Democrats did not receive a majority of Catholic votes in elections for the House of Representatives, and the Catholic vote resembled that of the overall electorate. White non-Hispanic Catholics, however, remained predominantly Republican.
Catholics' political leanings can be influenced by various factors, including race and ethnicity. White Catholic registered voters are more likely to identify with or lean toward the Republican Party (57%), while most Hispanic Catholic voters (68%) identify as Democrats or lean Democratic. Catholics' views on specific policy issues, such as abortion and immigration, can also differ significantly between those who identify as Republicans and those who identify as Democrats. For example, 77% of Democratic and Democratic-leaning Catholic adults believe that abortion should be legal in all or most cases, while 63% of Republican and Republican-leaning Catholics believe it should be illegal. On immigration, 91% of Catholic Democrats oppose expanding the wall along the US-Mexico border, while 81% of Catholic Republicans favor it.
While the terms "red state" and "blue state" are commonly used, it is important to note that these labels can oversimplify the complexity of political affiliations within states. All states contain both liberal and conservative voters, and the winner-take-all system used by most states in the Electoral College can mask the diversity of political beliefs within a state. Additionally, feelings of cultural and political polarization between red and blue states have led to increased mutual feelings of alienation and enmity.
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Catholics are more aligned with their political parties than the teachings of their church
The terms "red state" and "blue state" came into use in the 2000 United States presidential election to refer to states whose voters predominantly support Republican (red) or Democratic (blue) candidates. While the political leanings of states are influenced by a range of factors, including voting patterns, the party affiliations of governors and congresspeople, and state laws, it is clear that Catholics are often divided along party lines.
Historically, Catholics have not always voted in line with the teachings of their church. For example, in 1992, about one-third of Catholics voted for Bush's reelection, with most Catholic defectors switching to independent candidate Ross Perot rather than Democrat Bill Clinton. In 1994, Democrats failed to receive a majority of Catholic votes in House of Representatives elections, and in 1996, Clinton's share of Catholic votes was only four percentage points higher than his overall share. In 2000, Catholics divided their votes almost exactly in half between Democrat Al Gore and Republican George W. Bush.
In more recent years, Catholics have continued to demonstrate their political diversity. In 2008, Catholics chose Democrat Barack Obama over Republican John McCain by a margin of 54% to 45%2016, 52% of Catholics backed Donald Trump while 44% voted for Hillary Clinton. In 2018 and 2019, Pew Research Center polls found that Catholic voters were almost evenly split between the two major parties, with 48% identifying as Republican or leaning Republican, and 47% identifying as Democrat or leaning Democrat.
On specific policy issues, Catholics often appear to prioritize their political affiliations over the teachings of the Catholic Church. For example, despite the Catholic Church's formal opposition to abortion, a 2019 survey found that 77% of Democratic and Democratic-leaning Catholic adults believed that abortion should be legal in all or most cases, while 63% of Republican and Republican-leaning Catholics said abortion should be illegal in all or most cases. A separate 2019 survey on immigration revealed a similar trend, with 91% of Catholic Democrats opposing the expansion of the wall along the US-Mexico border, compared to 81% of Catholic Republicans who favored its expansion.
In summary, while Catholics in the United States may lean slightly more Republican according to some sources, they are ultimately divided in their political affiliations, and their votes do not appear to be dictated by the teachings of the Catholic Church. Instead, Catholics, like Americans overall, are sharply divided by party, and their votes are influenced by a range of cultural, social, and economic issues.
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White non-Hispanic Catholics are majority Republican
The terms "red state" and "blue state" refer to US states whose voters predominantly vote for one party in elections. Red states are those that vote for the Republican Party, while blue states vote for the Democratic Party. Swing states, where the predominant vote fluctuates between the two parties, are known as "purple states".
In 2008, Catholics chose Democrat Barack Obama over Republican John McCain by a margin of 54% to 45%. In 2012 and 2000, Catholic votes were almost evenly split between the two parties. However, white and Hispanic Catholics differ significantly in their political leanings. Nearly six in ten white Catholic registered voters (57%) identify with or lean toward the Republican Party, a notable shift since 2008, when only four in ten (41%) supported the GOP. On the other hand, most Hispanic Catholic voters (68%) identify as Democrats or lean Democratic, a share that has remained stable over the past decade.
In the 2016 presidential election, 52% of Catholics backed Republican Donald Trump, while 44% voted for Democrat Hillary Clinton. In the same year, 64% of White Catholics voted for Trump, while 78% of Hispanic Catholics voted for Clinton. In 2020, around six in ten Catholics (59%) said they considered Biden to be religious, while far fewer Catholics (37%) thought the same of Trump. In the 2024 election, 59% of White Catholic registered voters said they would vote for Trump, while 65% of Hispanic Catholic registered voters preferred Biden.
Overall, while US Catholics are sharply divided by party, with around half identifying as Republicans or leaning Republican, white non-Hispanic Catholics tend to be majority Republican.
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Democrats are more likely to be unaffiliated with religion than Republicans
The terms "red state" and "blue state" refer to US states whose voters predominantly vote for one party in elections. Red states are those that vote for the Republican Party, while blue states vote for the Democratic Party.
In recent years, there has been a growing number of Americans who do not identify with any religion, referred to as "nones". This group has grown from essentially zero in some Gallup surveys in the 1950s to over 20% in recent surveys. The increase in this group is largely driven by changes among Democrats, as the percentage of Democratic "nones" has increased significantly more than the percentage of Republican "nones".
As of 2024, 70% of religiously unaffiliated voters align with the Democratic Party, while only 27% identify as Republicans or lean Republican. This is a sharp increase from a few decades ago when the smaller nonreligious population was fairly evenly split between the two parties. In 2018, a record-high share of 75% of religiously unaffiliated voters supported Democratic candidates.
Among Catholic voters, there is a partisan divide, with about half identifying as Republicans or leaning Republican, compared to 44% who identify as Democrats or lean Democratic. However, this varies based on race and ethnicity. White Catholic registered voters tend to identify with or lean toward the Republican Party, while most Hispanic Catholic voters identify as Democrats or lean Democratic.
While the polarization between red and blue states has gained increased media attention, it is important to note that all states contain both liberal and conservative voters, and the perception of a stark divide may be influenced by the winner-take-all system used by most states in the Electoral College.
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Frequently asked questions
The terms "red state" and "blue state" refer to US states whose voters predominantly vote for one party in statewide elections. Red states vote for the Republican Party, and blue states vote for the Democratic Party.
Catholics are split down the middle politically, with around half identifying as Republicans or leaning towards the Republican Party, and the other half identifying as Democrats or leaning towards the Democratic Party. Therefore, Catholics are likely to live in both red and blue states.
Yes, there are some differences. White non-Hispanic Catholics are majority Republican, while most Hispanic Catholic voters identify as Democrats.
Catholics are often more aligned with their political party than with the teachings of their church. For example, the Catholic Church formally opposes abortion, but 77% of Democratic Catholics say abortion should be legal in most cases, while 63% of Republican Catholics say it should be illegal.
